Global cocoa prices have slipped roughly 17.5 percent since the week began, dipping below 8.9 thousand dollars per metric ton according to ICE Futures data. The latest May cocoa bean futures are trading around 8,850 dollars per tonne on Tuesday, down about 11.35 percent from the previous session, after closing Friday near 10,729 dollars per ton.
Just a week and a half earlier, on April 19, cocoa futures in the foreign exchange market hit a new peak, topping eleven thousand dollars per ton. This sharp move highlighted the volatility seen in recent trading sessions and reflected shifting expectations across global cocoa markets.
Price declines in the spot and futures markets followed positive export updates from Nigeria, one of the world’s top five producers. Nigeria reported cocoa exports for March rising by about 19 percent year over year to roughly 22.2 thousand metric tons, a signal that shipments could stay robust in the near term even as futures prices retreat. This development helped temper concerns about domestic supply, influencing buyers to reassess pricing and demand for cocoa beans in the international market.
Market participants have been weighing a range of factors that impact cocoa values. Currency movements, weather patterns in cocoa-growing regions, and shifts in demand from major consuming nations all play roles in price formation. Analysts note that while Nigerian export growth supports near-term demand expectations, broader macro factors and speculative positioning continue to drive the path of cocoa futures. As traders monitor weekly shipment data and crop progress, debate persists about whether prices have found a new equilibrium or remain at risk of renewed volatility in the coming weeks.
In recent sessions, observers have cited a potential rebalancing of long and short positions among funds and producers. Some market watchers have suggested that price rebounds could unfold if supply constraints reemerge in top producing regions or if demand from key buyers strengthens again after periodic dips. Conversely, if currency strength strengthens against commodity pricing currencies or if harvest reports indicate larger than expected global supplies, prices could stay under pressure. The dynamic nature of cocoa markets means that price levels frequently pivot as new data arrives and traders reassess risk and return. Overall, the current environment reflects a balance between improving export performance in some regions and the ongoing sensitivity of cocoa to macroeconomic signals and speculative sentiment.