Cocoa beans begin life in protective pods, already compromised before they reach harvest. In Ivory Coast and Ghana, two of the planet’s largest producers, farmers face a persistent enemy known as black pod disease. The climate crisis has intensified this threat, bringing heavy rains and floods that wreck crops and shrink yields. Unlike drought-related shortages seen elsewhere, this region’s excess moisture is tied to El Niño, a global climate pattern that reshapes weather and hits farmers hard. Consequently, wholesale cocoa prices have climbed to their highest levels since 1977, tightening supply chains and squeezing margins for growers.
On the international scene, cocoa values have risen by roughly 65 percent compared with the prior year. When sugar prices, also affected by El Niño, are added to the mix, it becomes plausible that chocolate costs could spike further in the upcoming holiday season. The United States Department of Agriculture has forecast higher dessert and cookie prices, with overall food inflation gaining momentum in the year ahead. A broader view suggests households may see pricier sweet treats as supply chains adjust to weather-driven disruptions. — FAO, Bloomberg, USDA
Since the start of the West African rainy season on May 1, total rainfall has surpassed historical norms by more than double over the past thirty years, according to Bloomberg reports. Harvests in Ghana appear poised to be the weakest in 13 years, while Ivory Coast shows the lowest output among seven major producers. Collectively, these two nations account for about 60 percent of the world’s cocoa beans, as noted by the International Cocoa Organization. — Bloomberg, ICO
Active cocoa futures on major exchanges have climbed to multi-decade highs, with prices around $4,200 per metric ton on the New York market. This level signals meaningful value in the market, and industry observers caution that the rise may not have peaked yet, given ongoing supply constraints and ongoing weather uncertainty. — Market misgivings
abandoned farms
Another hurdle is that farmers have struggled to benefit from any price increases. In some cases, growers have abandoned plots as costs rise and uncertainty persists. Cocoa markets in Ivory Coast and Ghana are shaped by government policy and regulatory practices, which often involve long-term forward sales to foreign buyers. This means payments to farmers for the current season were largely settled about a year earlier, when futures traded around the mid-$2,500 per ton range, creating a disconnect between current prices and immediate farmer income. — ICO, FAO
Meanwhile, international sugar markets have shown volatility as well. Prices hovered at elevated levels last November, higher than October, and remained well above the same month a year earlier. The FAO notes that production delays in major exporters like India and Thailand—driven by drought linked to El Niño—contributed to the price uptick. Delays in crop development, along with an influx of shipments from Brazil and a stronger local currency, helped push sugar costs higher. The FAO also highlights that a healthier pace of production and a drop in crude oil prices helped cap further increases. Analysts emphasize that lingering weather disruption continues to influence global supply chains and price behavior across soft commodities, including sugar and cocoa, in coming seasons. — FAO, Bloomberg, USDA sources cited