The Russian oil refining sector is facing a set of significant hurdles that could tighten the domestic gasoline supply during the coming summer months. This concern was highlighted in a recent Forbes column by Sergei Kondratyev, who serves as the Deputy Head of the Economics Department at the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF). Kondratyev underscores that the combination of sanctions and logistical bottlenecks is complicating refinery repairs, a situation worsened by shortages of foreign equipment and essential components. In addition, the rising frequency of drone attacks on critical energy infrastructure is adding to the risk profile for operators and investors alike. According to Kondratyev, any delays in modernization work or unplanned outages could more quickly translate into a squeeze at the pump for consumers across Russia and beyond.
The expert notes that Russia’s refineries currently have a total designed processing capacity of around 340 million tons of crude oil per year. Yet, the path to keeping this capacity fully utilized is disrupted by repair and modernization challenges that stretch maintenance timelines and inflate costs. This, in turn, raises the likelihood of a domestic gasoline shortage during the peak consumption period of the summer season. Kondratyev emphasizes that without timely upgrades and reliable supply chains for critical parts, the available gasoline stocks could fall short of domestic demand, affecting transport, industry, and everyday life for Russian consumers. The discussion points to a need for strategic planning and potential government coordination to bridge gaps created by sanctions and external shocks.
Last year, Russia processed about 275 million tons of crude oil. Within the resulting products, approximately 86–90 percent of gasoline, 80–85 percent of jet fuel, and 50–60 percent of diesel were directed to the domestic market. Kondratyev stresses that a heavy reliance on imported equipment for refinery operations creates a vulnerability: any disruption in supply chains—whether from sanctions, sanctions-related logistics, or supplier risk—can have an outsized impact on the ability of domestic refineries to operate at full capacity. This dependency, he suggests, necessitates a reassessment of sourcing strategies, domestic supplier development, and the resilience of the maintenance ecosystem to keep production stable during periods of stress.
The broader market dynamics are expected to be a central topic in upcoming government discussions. Officials are anticipated to assess options to safeguard fuel availability, manage price pressures, and coordinate across agencies to ensure steady supply lines despite external constraints. Kondratyev’s analysis implies that proactive policy measures could help mitigate the risk of shortages, including potential stockpiling, accelerated procurement of critical equipment, and targeted support for refineries undergoing modernization. These steps would aim to preserve energy security while navigating the complexities of international trade and the evolving sanctions landscape.
In light of this outlook, the government is reviewing new measures that could stabilize the fuel market and cushion consumers from sudden price swings or supply disruptions. The discussions suggest a multi-faceted approach, combining enhanced maintenance programs, diversified equipment sourcing, and improved coordination between energy agencies and industrial players. The ultimate goal is to sustain domestic gasoline availability through the summer and beyond, ensuring that economic activity is not impeded by avoidable supply gaps. Observers note that the outcome will hinge on how quickly refiners can adapt to the twin pressures of sanctions and security threats, while maintaining safe and compliant operations across the sector. The evolving policy environment will be watched closely by industry participants, investors, and analysts who seek clarity on how Russia will balance energy needs with fiscal and strategic priorities in the months ahead. [Attribution: Kondratyev, Institute of Energy and Finance, based on expert commentary for Forbes]