In March, after two years of conflict, the largest Russian refineries that produce high-quality fuel for the domestic market were hit for the first time. The impact on the timing of capacity renewal and the overall supply of most oil products is not catastrophic, but the situation with AI-95 gasoline could become problematic. This assessment comes from Kommersant, and it mirrors concerns echoed by market observers in North America about refinery resilience and supplier risk amid geopolitical tensions.
Total production losses from the attacks are estimated at 5-6%. That volume is relatively modest for diesel, given its substantial export share, but AI-95 gasoline was already in short supply last summer due to stronger domestic tourism and demand from new regions. The shortfall creates a near-term pressure point for the gasoline market, even as other products recover more quickly.
To fill the missing volumes over the next three to four months of repairs, several options are on the table. One route involves imports from Belarus, which ships about 3 million tons of gasoline annually through Russian infrastructure. Historically, Belarusian gasoline has not been a common feature in the Russian market because of pricing dynamics, but it could become a practical stopgap under current conditions.
Russia could justify increased reliance on Belarus by arguing that Belarusian refineries process Russian crude and that there are limited alternative export routes. A second lever is to widen the so-called shock absorber—a subsidy mechanism used during peak seasons to maximize the output of surviving refineries and curb wholesale gasoline price spikes. A modest uplift in this subsidy could help some consumers transition to liquefied gas as a short-term substitute.
Meanwhile, Kremlin discussions have touched on compensation schemes for refineries that sustained damage from drone attacks, signaling a policy focus on stabilizing downstream supply amid ongoing security risks. Market watchers in Russia and beyond are closely watching how these compensation plans will interact with broader energy strategies and regional supply chains.
Analysts continue to assess the scale of the disruption to Russian oil production and the potential knock-on effects for global markets. While the immediate gasoline shortfall is manageable within a wider energy system, the situation underscores how geopolitics can quickly reshape regional fuel availability and pricing, even for a country that controls large crude reserves and refinery capacity. The lessons drawn may inform energy policy discussions in North America as well, where markets weigh resilience, domestic production, and strategic stock considerations in the face of supply shocks.
References indicate that the overall production gap will likely be absorbed through a combination of imports, strategic adjustments, and temporary price supports that prevent sharp spikes. The balance between supporting refinery uptime and maintaining affordable consumer fuel remains a live policy question in the region, with ongoing monitoring of refinery repair timelines and import logistics. [Source attribution: Kommersant]