Industry analyst Sergey Tereshkin, who heads the oil products market at Open Oil Market and lives in Skolkovo, told RIA Novosti that gasoline prices in Russia are likely to rise more slowly toward the end of the year than they did during the summer months. The remark places the focus on how domestic pricing might ease after a period of faster growth driven by various supply pressures.
Rosstat data for the period from October 28 to November 5 show the average retail price of gasoline rose to 59.19 rubles per liter, an increase of 0.19 percent compared with the previous week. This snapshot helps frame the current cost environment for households and businesses as winter demand begins to influence fuel purchases and inventory decisions.
Tereshkin said that the pace of price growth in the last two months of the year would be slower than in the summer, when weekly increases averaged about 0.6 percent. He pointed to the expectation that producers will moderate price movements in the wake of policy signals and market dynamics that favor closer alignment between domestic supply and demand as the year winds down.
According to him, oil companies will try to keep prices from rising too quickly in order to support the objective of lifting the gasoline export ban. Such a shift would adjust the balance between domestic affordability and the strategic aim of ensuring stable energy markets while honoring international commitments and regional arrangements.
The current price picture is heavily influenced by rising costs tied to disruptions at refineries. Tereshkin explained that these downtime events pushed wholesale prices higher, which in turn fed through to retail fuel costs at the pump. The chain from refinery performance to consumer prices underscores how supply-side shocks can ripple through the broader energy market and affect household budgets during the colder months.
Tereshkin did not specify the exact reasons for the downtime at the refineries, but market observers typically consider factors such as maintenance shutdowns, equipment issues, and occasional supply chain hiccups that can temporarily constrain throughput and lift wholesale pricing. These uncertainties complicate forecasting and heighten the importance of timely information for retailers and policymakers alike.
Russia maintains a gasoline export ban that began on March 1, with exemptions for member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. The policy aims to shelter domestic supplies during periods of tightness while allowing continued trade with trusted neighbors in the bloc. As the year progresses, the debate about export restrictions remains central to how prices, refinery utilization, and inventory levels interact across the market.
A former deputy prime minister indicated that the export ban on AI-92 gasoline could be lifted ahead of the previously announced timetable. The AI-92 grade is widely used across the country and acts as a benchmark for consumer and commercial fuel. A potential early relaxation of the ban would signal a policy shift designed to bolster domestic supply channels, influence regional trade dynamics, and potentially alter incentives for refiners and distributors in the near term.
Analysts note that the domestic market will keep responding to a mix of factors, including refinery reliability, changes in export policy, global crude prices, and the strength of the ruble. Shifts in these variables can quickly reframe price trajectories and affect decisions on storage, distribution, and investment in capacity. Authorities and industry participants typically monitor refinery uptime, repair schedules, and macroeconomic indicators to forecast the next steps in price movements.
In summary, the trajectory for gasoline prices in Russia appears to be on track for a slower rise toward year-end, even as domestic costs remain sensitive to refinery operations and currency movements. The balance between keeping prices reasonable for consumers and maintaining strategic stockpiles, export flexibility, and regional stability will continue to shape the market. As policy reviews proceed and refinery performance evolves, price movements are likely to reflect both domestic priorities and international market signals, with households and businesses watching closely for signs of relief or renewed pressure at the pump.