The Russian Ministry of Energy has signaled a potential temporary ban on fuel exports to shield the domestic market. Officials told socialbites.ca that several measures are already in motion and multiple scenarios are being explored to ease the pressures in the country’s fuel sector amid a crisis in supply and pricing.
Special oversight has been placed on the delivery cadence for oil products heading south and east, with the Ministry of Energy and Russian Railways coordinating to keep fuel flows steady. Daily monitoring of the domestic motor fuels market continues, and operational actions are being taken as needed.
The government is examining long term steps that may include export restrictions, adjustments to tax burdens, and prioritization of oil cargo movements. This update came from the ministry’s press service as reported to socialbites.ca.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted active engagement with companies to ensure required supply volumes and measures aimed at curbing informal exports. Rosstat figures indicate broad market dynamics across fuel segments.
In retail, the average price at gas stations in Russia rose by nearly 8 percent over the first eight months of the year. An accompanying infographic offers more detail.
Wholesale markets show similar trends as SPIMEX data reveals daily records being set with rising offers for both gasoline and diesel.
Retail and wholesale
By early September retail prices for gasoline averaged 54.8 rubles per liter nationwide. AI-92 averaged 50.7 rubles per liter, AI-95 55.4 rubles, and AI-98 66.9 rubles, while diesel hovered around 61.6 rubles per liter. In the wholesale sector, AI-92 climbed to 66.2 thousand rubles per ton, AI-95 to 76.9 thousand rubles per ton, and diesel near 69.1 thousand rubles per ton, with simultaneous price pressures noted across the market.
There is notable disagreement within the government about the trajectory of fuel availability. Recently, Dmitry Patrushev, head of the Ministry of Agriculture, warned about risks to the harvest and winter planting due to diesel shortages and floated a temporary export ban on petroleum products. Industry representatives express more urgent concerns about reliability and pricing.
One farmer leader remarked that fuel costs have surged dramatically from roughly 65-67 rubles per kilogram in mid-August to around 100 rubles per kilogram, with shortages persisting even at higher prices, as reported to socialbites.ca by Sergei Kolesnikov, chairman of a regional agricultural cooperative association.
The Ministry of Energy asserts that there is no domestic fuel shortage and notes that diesel reserves approach three million tons, sufficient to meet current demand. In parallel, officials say studies are being conducted to identify ways to reduce wholesale prices.
It’s not the oil workers’ fault
Pavel Bazhenov of the Independent Fuel Association reports that wholesale prices have risen over 60 percent since the start of the year and retail prices about 10 percent, even as oil companies maintain prices at inflationary levels. He points out that about 60 percent of the refueling network is owned by independent operators who must align prices with the levels set by major producers.
One industry observer noted the public discomfort with rapidly rising gasoline costs, highlighting how everyday use translates into higher living costs as prices spike. Bazhenov suggests that without changes to the regulatory framework, retail gasoline prices may surpass official inflation later in the year.
Regulators face a delicate balance: curb inflation while not hampering the oil sector, which is crucial for the country’s budget. The idea of a dampening mechanism that compensates a portion of the difference between export and domestic prices has been discussed, with the aim of easing domestic costs during periods of high export pricing.
Recent adjustments to depreciation payments have added to retail price pressures, and Bazhenov notes a trend toward phasing out some of these support measures. Energy and Finance experts explain that exchange rate shifts, elevated foreign fuel prices, and robust demand in both international and domestic markets contribute to price dynamics.
Over the past month authorities have sought a path to ease tensions in the fuel market. Some experts believe stricter export controls and quotas may eventually be introduced to ensure domestic demand is met, with closer alignment between refinery shipments and domestic needs. The ministries of Energy and Finance appear determined to stabilize the market, anticipating a seasonal easing into autumn and winter that could help moderate demand and price pressure.
Export price differentials remain a factor, with the cost of fuel sold abroad exceeding domestic pricing, which may push wholesale prices higher if export volumes remain strong. An industry source noted forthcoming adjustments could shift market dynamics in favor of domestic supply stability.
Oil workers are guilty
Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Association, attributes price rises to the loss of a government tool that previously tempered costs for oil workers. He recalls a time when royalties and subsidies helped keep domestic fuel cheaper, while now price rises outpace the tools once available. He also notes that limiting informal exports is unlikely to fully resolve the situation, given that a portion of exports still emerges through gray channels.
Shaparin emphasizes that ongoing media narratives about losses for gas stations do not reflect the broader market, pointing out that many outlets are owned by integrated companies that can offset retail losses with profits from production. He asserts that oil sector profitability has been strong in recent years, even as prices climb for ordinary consumers.
With the harvest season and winter planting campaigns at stake, the industry faces national security concerns linked to fuel availability and rising costs. Observers suggest the situation may prompt higher energy and transportation costs across products, potentially reducing household disposable income. In this context, Shaparin calls for decisive action to stabilize the market and reassure stakeholders that the price pressure will ease as regulatory measures take effect.
The discussion continues about whether retailers are operating at a loss. Many analysts argue that the financial dynamics within vertically integrated groups allow them to absorb retail margins through upstream earnings, complicating the narrative around consumer prices. The debate underscores the tension between safeguarding consumer affordability and maintaining robust energy production to support the national budget and economy.