The recent movement in Russia’s fuel market shows another climb in prices tracked on major exchanges, with AI-92 gasoline briefly exceeding 66 thousand rubles per ton in the latest session. Market indicators report that, on that Thursday, gasoline priced at AI-92 rose by about 1.1 percent, landing near 66,220 rubles per ton. In parallel, AI-95 gasoline reached fresh highs, rising roughly half a percent to about 76,876 rubles per ton. Summer-grade diesel also posted a new peak, advancing around 0.8 percent to 69,122 rubles per ton. These records reflect a broader pattern of price strength that has emerged in late summer and into early autumn, underscoring persistent volatility in the wholesale market for refined products across Russia.
Observers note that the uptrend has become a near-daily occurrence in recent months, driven by a combination of supply constraints and policy factors. A key element cited by market analysts is the reduction of state support payments tied to the so-called fuel damper mechanism. From September through December 2026, depreciation subsidies for both gasoline and diesel are slated to be reduced by 50 percent, shifting some pressure onto exporters and traders who depend on wholesale markets to source fuel for domestic consumption. As export activity rises, the domestic price environment tightens, particularly when shipments are directed abroad and traders procure additional fuel—sometimes including gray-market supplies—to meet internal demand. This dynamic is often cited as a catalyst for higher posted prices on the exchange and at the pump, as the cost of raw materials and refined products adjusts to changing export flows and regulatory influences.
Retail margins at gasoline stations have come under pressure as wholesale costs rise. Earlier this month, the margin for AI-95 gasoline slipped into negative territory, approximately minus 2 rubles per liter, while AI-92 logged around minus 3 rubles per liter. Industry data indicate that, despite the higher wholesale prices, retailers face tighter margins as they contend with varying demand and competitive pricing dynamics across different regions. This squeeze can influence how much of the wholesale cost is transmitted to consumers, contributing to fluctuating prices at the curb as markets react to daily supply conditions and stock levels.
Rosstat’s data show that, in July, the overall cost of petroleum products at filling stations rose by about 2 percent compared with June. Looking at the year-to-date picture, prices per liter of gasoline have climbed roughly 4.8 percent since January, while diesel has advanced by around 0.6 percent. These figures highlight a broader inflationary trend within the fuel sector, reflecting how wholesale movements and regulatory changes ripple through to consumer prices.
Industry voices quoted by Gazeta.ru have suggested that, in the autumn season, gasoline retail prices might settle near a ceiling of about 62.98 rubles per liter, with diesel hovering near 64.61 rubles per liter. While forecasts vary, the sentiment among economists and market participants emphasizes caution for drivers and businesses alike, as the balance between export incentives, domestic demand, and regulatory support will continue to shape the price landscape into the coming months. Overall, the pattern of elevated prices ties closely to export dynamics, regulatory policy shifts, and the evolving structure of subsidies that influence both wholesale and retail markets. (Attribution: Rosstat; Gazeta.ru; market data reports)