In Russia, the portion of the federal budget funded by oil and natural gas revenues dropped to its lowest level in sixteen years, settling around 28 percent of total government income. This assessment comes from an analytical note by the Accounts Chamber, cited by RBC.
For the first nine months of the year, revenues from oil and gas represented 28.3 percent of all federal receipts. When compared with the same period in 2022, the share of oil and gas fell by 15 percent, and in monetary terms these revenues declined by 2.9 trillion rubles. The trend underscores a substantial shift in the structure of public finance as energy earnings diminish relative to other revenue streams.
Consequently, oil and gas revenues as a share of total federal budget income reached their lowest level since 2007, signaling a notable recalibration of fiscal dependence on energy markets.
Analysts attribute this development to two main factors: a drop in the average price of Ural oil and a strategic tax maneuver within the oil and gas sector. These elements together constrained the scale of energy-derived state income during the period in question and affected the overall budget trajectory.
Earlier projections indicated that Russia’s budget revenues from the fuel and energy complex would fall by about 3 trillion rubles in 2023 compared with 2022, with total FEC receipts expected to reach around 8.6 trillion rubles. This forecast highlighted a broader transition in the energy sector and its fiscal implications for the year ahead.
Historically, debates about oil’s role in the global energy mix have persisted, with questions about how long oil could remain the dominant energy source and how price cycles influence state revenue planning. This context helps explain the recent budgeting outcomes and the ongoing conversation about Russia’s fiscal stability in an era of shifting energy demand and price volatility.