In 2023, Russia faced a notable decline in its export of petroleum products, with projections suggesting a reduction of around 16 percent to about 100 million tons. This assessment came from Andrey Klepach, the chief economist at VEB.RF, Russia’s state development corporation, and was reported by TASS. The trajectory reflected a broader trend in energy trade as markets shifted and supply chains adjusted to geopolitical and economic shifts across Europe and beyond.
Klepach emphasized that the risks extended beyond crude oil to the entire spectrum of petroleum products. He noted that Russia previously exported well over 140 million tons, predominantly to European buyers, including manufacturing partners within the continent. In the prior year, shipments reached roughly 122 million tons, representing a substantial decline that surpassed 20 million tons. For the current year, he projected volumes in the range of 100 to 110 million tons, with the possibility of even lower figures depending on market conditions and policy developments.
Beyond liquid fuels, the chief economist highlighted changes in natural gas exports. He anticipated that gas sales to foreign markets would fall to about 137 billion cubic meters in 2022, against a backdrop where Russia’s annual gas exports had stood around 240 billion cubic meters through 2021. This shift underscored a broader realignment in energy exports amid evolving demand patterns and strategic considerations in European and global markets.
As highlighted by Klepach, the share of fuel exports to Europe has contracted significantly, with recent data indicating more than a half reduction. The forecast suggested that Russia might end up delivering gas to European destinations primarily through Turkey, reflecting the growing role of interregional routes and infrastructure. He also remarked on the lengthy process required for the country to reestablish itself as a gas transportation hub, illustrating the scale and complexity of energy transport planning and regional integration.
In related developments, the press service of the International Energy Agency reported that Russia’s revenue from oil and gas sales experienced a notable decline in January 2023, with a year-over-year drop of about 38 percent. The data pointed to the broader economic impact of energy market shifts and the sensitivities of revenue streams tied to commodity prices, demand, and geopolitical dynamics. Analysts continue to monitor how these changes influence production decisions, export routes, and the wider energy landscape across Europe, North America, and other regions seeking stable energy supplies and diversified supply chains.