Analysts tracking Russia’s budget dynamics in mid-February 2023 note a widening gap between what the state spent and what it earned. Reported figures show expenditures totaling 4.92 trillion rubles since the start of the year, while revenues stood at 951 billion rubles. The resulting shortfall amounts to roughly 4 trillion rubles, according to consolidated budget data compiled by the budget portal and relayed by MMI.
The annual deficit target was set at 2.9 trillion rubles, or about 2% of Russia’s gross domestic product. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov had indicated this figure prior to formal release of the year’s budget results, framing it as the plan for the year ahead.
MMI’s post notes that January’s daily spending averaged about 100.5 billion rubles, climbing in February to around 113 billion rubles per day. If daily outlays could be steadied at 100 billion rubles and the revenue plan remains on track through year-end, some projections warned that the deficit might exceed 10 trillion rubles over the entire year.
Analysts, however, caution that it is premature to draw firm conclusions about the trajectory of Russia’s budget revenues before quarterly results are published. They also stress that a single month’s data can be volatile, and a broader view is necessary to assess sustainability and policy needs.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank highlighted that elevated budget spending stands as a key factor that could prompt tighter monetary policy. The regulator could respond with adjustments to the policy stance, including the potential to raise the key interest rate if inflationary pressures persist and borrowing conditions tighten. At present, the rate sits at 7.5% per year, and any shift would be aimed at anchoring price stability while supporting financial conditions in the economy.