The planned oil and condensate output for 2024 in Russia is projected to reach about 523 million tons, according to Nikolai Shulginov, the head of Russia’s Ministry of Energy. This forecast was noted in communications with TASS, highlighting a strategic view of the country’s energy sector for the coming year. The projection frames a year where crude and related liquids are expected to form a major portion of the country’s export mix, underscoring the role of state policy and industry planning in shaping production levels and revenue trajectories for the domestic economy.
Beyond crude volumes, the ministry indicates that total refining capacity in the Russian Federation by the end of 2024 will be marginally lower than in the previous year. This assessment mirrors ongoing structural adjustments within the refinery sector, influenced by maintenance cycles, modernization programs, and the regional demand environment. At the same time, preliminary estimates from the Ministry suggest that natural gas production over the twelve-month period could total around 667 billion cubic meters, reflecting Russia’s status as a leading gas producer and transporter, with sustained investments in gas fields and pipeline infrastructure to support export opportunities and domestic supply reliability.
If these Ministry forecasts materialize, Russia would see a reduction in oil production of roughly 7 million tons compared with the current reference point. In contrast, gas production is expected to rise by about 30.3 billion cubic meters, a shift that aligns with the country’s ongoing emphasis on expanding gas extraction and export potential while balancing liquid fuel outcomes. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously cited a 2023 end-year gas production figure of 636.7 billion cubic meters, illustrating the relative scale and growth path envisioned for the gas sector as part of broader energy strategy and policy planning.
Earlier reporting suggested that oil shipments from Russia to friendly or partner countries would continue to comprise a significant share of total exports into the near term, with petroleum products also representing a substantial portion of the trade mix. Figures previously indicated that oil deliveries to allied markets could rise to a sizable share of overall imports, reflecting diplomatic and economic alignments that influence energy trade flows and pricing dynamics across regions. This context helps frame the Nation’s export strategy in a period of evolving bilateral relationships and global energy demand patterns.
There has also been dialogue about the potential emergence of another oil-producing country on the world stage, a development that could influence global supply dynamics, pricing, and strategic calculations for both producers and consumers. Market observers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders continue to monitor shifts in capacity, sanctions regimes, technological advancement, and potential new entrants that could alter the competitive landscape for crude and refined products in the years ahead. In this environment, Russia’s output plans for 2024 are part of a wider narrative about energy governance, market adaptation, and the role of state influence in shaping long-term supply scenarios. [Source: Ministry of Energy via TASS]