New data from the Russian Ministry of Finance shows the federal budget for January through July posted a deficit of 2.817 trillion rubles. In these seven months, the deficit stood at 1.8% of the country’s GDP, signaling a sustained gap between revenue and spending even as economic activity evolved.
The ministry has resumed publishing deficit and surplus estimates as a share of GDP, a practice it had paused since June 2021 after a nine-month break. In July, the budget deficit expanded by 222 billion rubles, underscoring ongoing fiscal pressures as the year progressed.
For the first seven months, budget revenues totaled 14.525 trillion rubles, which is 7.9% below the figure recorded in the same period of the previous year. This decline points to shifts in tax receipts and other inflows amid ongoing macroeconomic adjustments.
On the positive side, non-oil and gas revenues rose by 19.8% year over year, reaching 10.332 trillion rubles. The Finance Ministry highlighted that the dynamics of the main non-oil and gas sources, such as turnover taxes and income tax, have remained firmly in a stable growth zone, continuing a trend seen since 2021.
Oil and gas revenues, by contrast, continued to fall during January–July. They amounted to 4.193 trillion rubles, a drop of 41.4% from the previous year. The ministry attributed this to a high base effect from last year, a dip in Urals crude prices, weaker export demand for natural gas, and broader shifts in global energy markets.
Core oil and gas revenues rose by 31.4% to 4.59 trillion rubles. The ministry noted that refining the base for calculating certain oil taxes and adjusting price reduction mechanisms should support higher tax receipts in the second half of the year.
Expenditures for January through July reached 17.341 trillion rubles, which is about 14% higher than in the same period a year earlier. The Finance Ministry said that monthly expenditure execution has returned to normal levels after a period of adjustment, reflecting shifts in public spending programs and seasonal needs.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov projected that Russia’s 2023 federal budget deficit would come in around 2% to 2.5% of GDP, with the exact figure to be finalized in the third quarter.
In remarks surrounding the outlook, Siluanov acknowledged the range of opinions among economists, noting a split between pessimists and optimists about the year’s fiscal trajectory.