A very rapid and sharp weakening of the ruble is driving inflation higher, while a stronger dollar pushing beyond 80 rubles would not necessarily cripple the Russian economy. That assessment comes from Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, speaking to the Prime agency. He emphasizes a different problem: the volatility of the ruble rather than its level. When the currency swings widely, it becomes almost impossible for businesses, government bodies, and households to plan long-term budgets and investments with confidence.
Vasilyev notes that a weaker ruble tends to lift overall price levels, feeding into broader inflation. At the same time, the ruble’s movements have not translated into a proportional surge in consumer prices yet. The dollar has risen roughly 14 percent since the year began, but consumer inflation has held near 1.6 percent for the same period. The risk is that importers facing higher costs will pass some of those increases on to shoppers, potentially accelerating price growth in everyday goods and services.
In his base scenario, the economist projects inflation to surpass the central bank’s target in the coming months and to hover around 7.5 percent by year-end. Several factors could contribute to that trajectory, including ongoing currency depreciation, persistent economic headwinds, and widened budget gaps. The interaction of exchange-rate dynamics with fiscal policy and external financing conditions will shape how inflation evolves over the months ahead.
Earlier reports cited Sergei Suverov, an investment strategist at Arikapital, who suggested that the recent OPEC+ decisions to trim oil output could offset some downward pressure on the ruble. The coordinated cuts by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other major producers might help stabilize the currency even after a sharp initial depreciation against global benchmarks. In such a scenario, tighter oil supply could support energy prices and, indirectly, national income, contributing to a steadier macro backdrop as foreign exchange flows adjust.
Taken together, these perspectives highlight a central theme for policymakers and market participants: the path of the ruble matters, but not in isolation. Monetary authorities face a balancing act between containing inflation, supporting growth, and smoothing currency volatility. Businesses that import a significant portion of their inputs will watch exchange-rate movements closely, while exporters and sectors tied to energy markets may respond differently to shifts in currency strength. The evolving mix of external prices, fiscal impulses, and confidence in the exchange-rate regime will continue to influence inflation, consumer purchasing power, and the broader economic outlook in the near term.