Key Rate Outlook 2025: Deposits, Loans, and Ruble Trends

Analysts widely back keeping the key rate steady. A survey of leading market observers showed no plan to change the policy stance in the near term, reinforcing a cautious approach from policymakers.

On inflation, many noted that January tends to be volatile. To gauge the trajectory, two more quarters of data are needed. Until then, decision makers will proceed cautiously, awaiting clearer signals before altering policy.

At the February 14 meeting, the case for tightening the policy gained some ground as concerns about inflation and expectations persisted. Yet the latest figures point to a cooling path for inflation and softer expectations, while lending remains weak from an operational viewpoint.

Seasonally adjusted inflation slowed to about 8 percent in February, down from 10.7 percent in January and 14 percent in December. In March, analysts expect a further easing to around 7 percent as seasonal factors unwind and price pressures ease. The policy team intends to shield the economy from renewed inflation by maintaining high rates that curb demand, supported by slower budget outlays and a stronger ruble, alongside ongoing discussions with the United States that influence sentiment.

The early signs of easing tension in the labor market appeared as Rosstat reported unemployment rising to 2.4 percent after three consecutive monthly increases in January. The central bank noted that it is premature to declare a durable slowdown in lending since December through February lending can reflect heightened budget spending.

As a result, the central bank is expected to pause in the coming months. A shift toward a neutral stance could emerge at the March 21 meeting, signaling a quieter path for policy actions while inflation remains under close watch.

What will happen to deposits

Banks began trimming deposit rates in 2025. The yield on deposits fell by about 1 to 2.5 percentage points as liquidity conditions shifted. Central Bank data show the average top rate on deposits among the ten largest banks slipping from 22.28 percent in mid-2024 to 21.44 percent in early February 2025. Analysts anticipate that after the March 21 decision, banks will continue to reduce bets on deposits and longer term accounts as competition remains intense and risk pricing evolves.

Economists note that the profitability of deposits depends not only on the policy rate but also on signals about future policy. Longer-term deposits may face larger declines relative to shorter-term products as banks recalibrate pricing in a changing rate environment.

Vasilyev projects that inflation will gradually ease to around 6.7 percent by the end of 2025, and that real positive rates in deposits could persist for the long term. A separate analyst observes that the profitability of fixed-term deposits may shift as policy evolves, but the overall impact on savers will hinge on inflation, rates, and bank pricing of risk.

Vladimir Eremkin, a senior researcher at the structural studies lab within the Presidential Academy, notes that risks on funded accounts tend to be lower than those on deposits, and there is little reason to expect a surge in deposits into cumulative accounts in the near term.

What will happen to loans

Mortgage and consumer loan rates moved lower in 2025, with reductions of roughly 1 to 2.5 percentage points reported. Current mortgage rates for new housing start near 28.8 percent per year, with all-in costs including fees potentially reaching about 38.2 percent. For secondary housing, rates hover in a similar range, with total costs in the upper thirties. Analysts expect loan pricing to ease gradually after policy moves, though the pace will depend on demand and risk pricing by lenders.

Vasilyev estimates that average mortgage rates by the end of the first quarter approach market levels with a small decline around 0.5 percentage points. Olga Panina, an associate professor of finance, warns that the decline in loan rates may take several months to materialize after the central bank acts.

What will happen to Ruble

Experts believe the current policy rate alone will not trigger a major shift in the ruble’s exchange rate in the near term. Still, the elevated rate is expected to support the ruble in the medium term by attracting savings and keeping inflation in check. On the one hand, high rates make ruble deposits attractive; on the other hand, they dampen consumer and investment demand, which can limit currency demand and influence the currency’s trajectory.

The ruble’s movement will continue to be shaped by the broader news agenda around negotiations with the United States and by geopolitical developments. Budget operations and central bank actions can provide temporary support as exporters convert earnings into rubles for the state budget. Analysts project the ruble to stay firm into March as external factors interact with domestic policy, while currency levels against the dollar, euro, and yuan remain sensitive to new developments.

Vasilyev argues the ruble could stay strong by the end of March with the dollar around 82–89 rubles, the euro around 89–97 rubles, and the yuan near 11.3–12.2 rubles. In contrast, another analyst suggested that sanctions relaxation could push the dollar toward 80 rubles, though it would likely rise again to the mid-90s under more normal conditions. Ruble fluctuations are normal, and for now, holding savings in rubles seems prudent given inflation protection and domestic policy support.

Overall, moves in the ruble are driven by macro news and geopolitical headlines. The currency remains sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and to the evolving policy stance of major economies in relation to Russia.

What will happen next?

The central bank has two upcoming policy meetings scheduled for late April and early June, with analysts not ruling out a possible rate reduction at either gathering. Some observers expect the bank to begin easing the key rate if inflation trends continue to soften and lending conditions improve alongside a healthier loan book.

Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at a major investment group, anticipates that June could mark the start of rate reductions. Anastasia Nisheva of Avi Capital Analytics suggests a potential initial cut of one percentage point, with a longer-run view seeing rates around the low twenties by year-end 2025. Vasilyev reiterates that geopolitics remains the primary source of uncertainty for forecasts, while a decline in oil prices could introduce a new risk factor.