The Russian oil shipment picture from tankers has shifted higher in recent weeks, signaling a sustained uptick in export activity.
Recent weekly data show that Russia’s oil exports by sea averaged about 3.53 million barrels per day last week, a rise of around 20 thousand barrels per day from the week before. This trend appears in Bloomberg’s reporting, which cites the publication’s own tracking figures and corroborates the broader movement in physical oil flows. The four-week average sits near 3.5 million barrels per day, marking the strongest level seen since June. Over a two-month span, the four-week average has climbed by roughly 610 thousand barrels per day, underscoring a notable expansion in crude movement from Russian ports. A modest weekly uplift is attributed to heightened supply routes in the Baltic and Pacific waters, which offset a decline in shipments through the Black Sea corridor. In early August, a senior Russian official signaled that export restrictions would be kept in place through year end, targeting an average about 300 thousand barrels per day below the May-to-June period. Yet actual port inflows have surpassed that target by approximately 220 thousand barrels per day, highlighting an important gap between policy assumptions and market dynamics.
The higher shipment levels have the effect of lifting revenue for the Kremlin from oil export duties to a peak not seen so far this year. The four-week average is near its highest mark since mid-January, illustrating how changes in volume translate into fiscal outcomes for the state budget and broader macro conditions that rely on energy exports. This pattern matters for observers tracking how sanctions, global demand, and logistical factors interact in the Eurasian energy landscape.
In mid-October, Pakistan opened a new channel for direct purchases of Russian oil by its domestic companies. This move expands the set of buyers engaging with Russian crude through direct-import arrangements, which could influence the regional flow of crude and alter the competitive dynamics among suppliers in Asia and the Indian Ocean corridor. Separately, Chinese refiners have been increasing purchases of Russian oil over a sustained period, with volumes growing across a nine-month horizon. This shift reflects a strategic diversification of supply sources for Chinese buyers, as well as continued interest from large downstream players seeking reliable crude at competitive prices.
Overall, the trajectory in tankered Russian oil exports points to a market where physical flows are responding to a mix of policy signals, port efficiency, and shifting demand in Asia and Europe. Analysts continue to monitor whether the trend toward higher seaborne volumes can be maintained through the autumn and into the winter season, as global inventories, refinery runs, and geopolitical considerations all shape the price environment. The latest data emphasize the importance of maritime markets and the resilience of supply chains that underpin key energy benchmarks in North America and beyond, with Bloomberg’s tracking providing a corroborating lens on these movements for investors and policymakers alike.