Russian oil prices stay elevated amid G7 sanctions and export controls. The average Urals price for August stood at 74 dollars per barrel, according to the press service of Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
“It is quite possible now that Argus Media’s Andrey Kochetkov, a prominent analyst at Otkritie Investments, is assessing the cost of Russian oil directly at Indian ports, and from there the price tends to rise to about 70–74 dollars per barrel each month,” stated Kochetkov.
Nevertheless, hitting the 70-dollar budget target remains uncertain. In the January–August period, the actual price averaged around 56 dollars per barrel.
“The question is whether the budget target of 70 dollars per barrel will be reached by the end of 2023,” commented Igor Yushkov, a senior analyst at the Finance University.
The flow of foreign exchange earnings abroad continues to be hampered by restrictions on repatriation to the Russian Federation. This dynamic constrains the effectiveness of oil sales for the national economy. For instance, in India more than 1 billion rupees were accumulated that Russia could not convert, limiting the ability to fund imports essential for the Russian economy.
“What India can provide to Russia is largely limited to textiles, certain exotic goods, or generic medicines. Of course, this does not cover the entire volume that Russia supplies to Indian industry,” Kochetkov noted.
By the end of the week, Russia is expected to experience a decline in oil supply in October.
A former analyst offered thoughts on the future trajectory of the global oil market.