Russia’s passenger car imports are projected to slump starting in 2025, a forecast published with the draft federal budget for 2025-2027 and reported by RBC. The projection envisions 1.085 million foreign cars entering the Russian market by the end of 2025, a figure that declines to 916,000 in 2026 and to 776,000 in 2027. To place these numbers in context, imports in 2023 totaled 1.09 million. Through eight months of the current year, the delivery volume was about one and a half times higher than in the same period of 2023. Those figures signal a transition period shaped by policy changes, macroeconomic conditions, and evolving consumer behavior. RBC emphasizes that officials and market analysts consider the 2025-2027 window as a pivotal phase where external supply dynamics, domestic production shifts, and the growing cost of compliance interact to set the pace of car inflows.
At the heart of the expected slowdown is a substantial rise in recycling fees. Starting October 1, rates climbed by roughly 70-85 percent across the board, lifting the cost of bringing an imported vehicle into Russia. The consequence is an anticipated average recycling fee of about 602 thousand rubles per vehicle in 2025, rising to around 716 thousand in 2026 and roughly 798 thousand in 2027. This policy shift is intended to boost domestic recycling, influence vehicle lifecycle decisions, and alter the relative cost competitiveness of imports versus locally assembled vehicles. RBC notes that such fee increases directly affect the total landed cost for foreign cars, reducing their appeal in a market where buyers weigh sticker price, maintenance, and long-term ownership costs.
Analysts also point to the localization of Chinese automotive brands and a softer appetite among Russians for new cars as additional forces shaping the near-term picture. Local assembly efforts by foreign manufacturers, including recent steps by several Chinese brands to expand production on Russian soil, help suppress the growth of imported units. In tandem, consumer confidence and financing conditions influence demand, encouraging buyers to postpone purchases or consider cheaper options. The combined effect is a gradual rebalancing of the mix of imports and domestically produced vehicles, with imported cars becoming a smaller share of total supply even as supply chains adapt to the new cost environment. RBC highlights that these factors do not operate in isolation, but interact with exchange rate movements, credit conditions, and supplier strategies.
Another factor feeding the forward view is a likely rise in vehicle inspection costs. Russians have been warned that inspection procedures and related regulatory checks will cost more in the coming years, contributing to the overall cost of ownership. When combined with higher recycling fees and potential shifts in brand localization, the result is a more expensive threshold for bringing foreign cars to the market. These policy and market developments create a calculus for buyers, sellers, and insurers that is different from a few years ago, and they underscore the ongoing transition in the Russian auto sector. RBC frames the trend as part of a broader recalibration of the auto industry in response to environmental rules, fiscal policy, and international trade dynamics.
For observers outside Russia, including audiences in Canada and the United States, the forecast offers useful insight into how government policy and market incentives can reshape imports and vehicle ownership costs in large emerging markets. The interaction of higher recycling levies, local production, and shifting demand illustrates how costs can accumulate for foreign brands while presenting opportunities for domestic players to expand. The developing pattern in Russia serves as a reminder that global auto markets are not insulated from policy changes and that manufacturers, investors, and consumers alike must track regulatory signals, currency effects, and market sentiment. In the near term, the balance between policy adjustments and consumer response will determine how quickly import volumes adjust and what that means for price levels, availability, and competition among brands.