Inflation in Russia is projected to reach its apex in the second quarter of this year, according to a report by TASS citing Andrey Gangan, the First Deputy Director of the Monetary Policy Department at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The central bank’s representative stated, We assume that the maximum possible annual inflation could occur in the second quarter of this year.
Earlier, Rosstat announced that annual inflation rose from 7.44 percent in January 2024 to 7.69 percent in February 2024. These figures reflect a steady increase in consumer prices across the country during the early months of 2024.
Breaking down February figures, food prices rose by 0.77 percent compared with January, with year over year growth for food standing at 8.08 percent. Non-food items increased by 0.26 percent month over month and by 6.59 percent on an annual basis. Services pricing advanced by 1.06 percent in January and showed an 8.45 percent rise over the previous year.
On February 28, the Central Bank of Russia published details of the discussion around the key rate decision for the first time. The minutes revealed that several board members considered the possibility of an interest rate cut a bit earlier than the latter half of the year.
In a broader outlook, analysts and officials have previously estimated that Russia’s gross domestic product could grow about 1.5 percent in 2024 compared with the 2023 level, supported by domestic demand and energy sector dynamics. The conversation around policy adjustments and inflation expectations continues to shape market sentiment and consumer pricing trajectories as the year progresses.
As observers take stock of these developments, the central bank maintains a cautious stance on monetary policy, balancing the objective of containing inflation with the aim of supporting sustainable growth. The evolving data highlights the complexity of inflation dynamics in Russia, where price movements span food, non-food goods, and services, each contributing differently to the overall metric. Market participants will be watching quarterly inflation indicators, consumer sentiment, and international developments for clues about the path of policy and the economy in 2024 and beyond.