The Russian Ministry of Energy projects a potential drop in gas production within Russia to 255 billion cubic meters by 2040, foreseeing an additional decline of about one third beyond that level. A recent report from Izvestia, citing a letter from the department’s head, Nikolai Shulginov, to the government, clarifies the outlook and the factors behind it.
For 2023, the ministry anticipated that output from Russia’s largest fields in Western Siberia, particularly in the Nadym-Pur-Taz area of the Yamal region, could reach around 468 billion cubic meters. This region alone supplies roughly 70 percent of the country’s total gas production, underscoring how pivotal Western Siberia remains to national gas output. The projections suggest a consolidation of supply from these major basins, with growth stunted by structural limits even as demand and export considerations press for higher volumes in some corridors.
Shulginov identified several factors contributing to a slower pace of gas production growth. Chief among them is the depletion of easily recoverable reserves, a condition that particularly affects the older Cenomanian-aged fields in Western Siberia. As these fields mature, annual output in the region could shift from the projected 295 billion cubic meters in 2030 to markedly lower figures, with estimates signaling a possible drop to 184 billion cubic meters, and by some assessments a more dramatic decline of up to 73 billion cubic meters by the mid-2020s. Such a trend would restructure the country’s domestic supply landscape, intensifying the challenge of sustaining current levels of production without new large-scale discoveries or enhanced recovery techniques.
On the eve of these disclosures, Shulginov highlighted data indicating that Russia’s overall oil and gas production in 2023 would be lower than in 2021. The decline is closely tied to international sanctions affecting the energy sector, which have complicated access to technology, investment, and markets. The sanctions environment has influenced project economics, supply chain reliability, and the ability to maintain existing facilities at peak efficiency, all of which contribute to the lower output trajectory described by officials and industry observers alike.
In this context, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reaffirmed a strategic directive focused on expanding both the production and export volumes of liquefied natural gas. This objective is framed as a central task for Russia’s fuel and energy complex, signaling a push to diversify export routes and markets, optimize LNG logistics, and leverage continental demand in Asia and other regions. Realizing this aim will depend on balancing domestic needs with international demand, navigating sanctions-related constraints, and advancing technology to maintain competitive costs and reliability across LNG trains, regasification terminals, and port access. The resulting policy posture is likely to influence investment decisions, regional development, and the pace at which new pipeline and LNG projects move from planning to execution, potentially reshaping the country’s role in global gas trade in the near term.