Forecast for 2025: Russian gasoline prices expected to rise 5-8.5% from 2024.
Analysts describe a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025, with fuel costs likely to move within a 5-8.5% inflation band. The government’s aim is to keep price moves aligned with overall inflation. Several factors will shape gasoline costs next year, including proposed increases in excise taxes on fuel. Beginning January 1, excise duties on high-octane gasoline may rise by about 14% and on diesel by around 16%. These shifts could influence both wholesale markets and retail stations, pushing margins in different directions depending on regional supply chains and demand patterns.
Refiners face rising operating expenses as maintenance and repairs to facilities become more costly and time-consuming. That pressure can filter through to pump prices. One contributor to these pressures is Western sanctions that restrict access to foreign equipment and spare parts, complicating maintenance schedules and project timelines.
Observed price data from early January show AI-92 averaging 55.64 rubles per liter and AI-95 around 59.34 rubles per liter. If trends persist, analysts project AI-92 could hover near 60.37 rubles and AI-95 near 64.38 rubles per liter, depending on wholesale costs, currency fluctuations, and refinery throughput. fuel price tracker.
In the broader energy view, inflation relief in 2025 is anticipated as markets adjust and policy signals stabilize. For readers in Canada and the United States, global oil prices and currency movements contribute to the broader context, even though the domestic price mechanisms differ. Crude price volatility, refining margins, and shipping costs remain key factors that can translate into local pump prices through markets connected by global energy flows. Analysts emphasize monitoring international price shifts, refinery maintenance plans abroad, and energy policy changes to gauge how Russian gasoline trends might influence the wider market.
Households should consider the potential impact on daily budgets, commuting costs, and household energy planning. Small savings can accumulate from smarter driving, vehicle maintenance, and choosing fuel-efficient options when possible. The outlook also underscores the dynamism of energy markets, where a combination of policy decisions, sanctions, and supply disruptions can create price moves that ripple through retail pricing. While the end-of-year 2025 picture remains uncertain, the central message is clear: price movements at the pump are likely to be shaped by a blend of tax policy, refinery conditions, and external shocks that influence supply and demand across regions.
Canadian and American readers may feel the effects indirectly through global oil price trends. A rise in international crude, shifts in currency rates, and changes in refinery throughput can translate into higher costs at home if local taxes and market structures reinforce those signals. Conversely, improvements in energy efficiency, a rotation toward alternative fuels, and competitive retail marketing can help soften price volatility for drivers in North America. Keeping an eye on policy updates and market analysis remains essential for anticipating how the next year’s gasoline costs could unfold.