The ruble’s slide against the dollar continues to challenge traders and policymakers, with many forecasting that the U.S. dollar will extend its strength. This view is echoed by Mikhail Belyaev, a candidate of economic sciences and a financial analyst, as reported by Lente.ru. He points to persistent fundamental forces behind the ruble’s weakness and warns that relief may be short-lived if policy actions fail to tackle these deeper drivers.
Belyaev projects ongoing dollar strength and envisions a scenario where the greenback could push the ruble toward the 110 level. He notes that the Bank of Russia’s move to raise the key rate to 12 percent aimed to slow the ruble’s decline, yet the impact did not deliver the durable stabilization hoped for. The central bank’s rate increase did not translate into a lasting balance for the exchange rate, according to the analyst.
The expert observes that a temporary correction followed the peak excitement over the ruble’s depreciation, a correction achieved largely because the higher key rate cooled speculative pressure for a time. Yet this pause did not address the economy’s underlying weaknesses. Internal structural concerns remain, and the high policy rate acts more as a pressure valve than a cure for the root causes, Belyaev explains.
From his perspective, the ruble is likely to weaken further as the fundamental factors endure while the monetary mechanism continues to operate with limited success in countering the decline. Initially, there may be a psychological hiccup—a period described as a float break—where markets test the currency’s resilience and speculators contribute to volatility. In this phase, the dollar may hover around the 95 ruble mark before resuming its downward drift, according to the analyst.
Looking ahead, Belyaev predicts that the depreciation trend could persist, driven by structural economic issues that remain unresolved. The combination of ongoing external pressures, domestic macro risks, and the currency’s sensitivity to global risk sentiment supports a continued path of weakness for the ruble. The dollar’s trajectory toward higher levels, potentially surpassing 111 rubles, appears plausible in his view if reforms or favorable shifts in the external environment do not emerge to counteract the momentum.
On August 17, the ruble’s exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange slipped to just under 93 rubles per dollar, illustrating ongoing volatility and real-time market dynamics. Analysts note that currency markets tend to be volatile during periods of uncertainty, with policy decisions and global financial developments steering short-term movements as traders reassess risk and exposure.
Historical context shows that currency depreciation often reflects a mix of structural weaknesses and shifting international dynamics. In the current cycle, the ruble’s weakness has been linked to capital outflows, fiscal dynamics, and the relative strength of external demand for energy exports, among other factors. Market participants in Canada and the United States may view these developments through the lens of macroeconomic stability, commodity price exposure, and the effectiveness of monetary policy in anchoring expectations.
While the near-term outlook highlights continued risk of further ruble depreciation, observers also consider the potential for policy recalibration, diversification of reserves, and tactical interventions to stabilize the currency. The balance between monetary tightening, fiscal discipline, and structural reform will likely shape the ruble’s path in the months ahead, with implications for investors, businesses, and households across North America who monitor currency risk as part of their financial planning.
In sum, the analysis presented by Belyaev emphasizes that the root causes of the ruble’s decline have not vanished and that the currency remains vulnerable to both domestic and international shocks. The coming period could feature continued volatility and gradual depreciation unless underlying economic vulnerabilities are addressed and policy measures gain traction in shifting the ruble’s trajectory against the dollar. Market watchers will stay attentive to shifts in policy stance, global demand patterns, and the evolving risk appetite of investors.