Volatility in the Russian currency could rise as the year ends, driven by seasonal factors and shifting demand. In a discussion with RIAMO, Maxim Tymoshenko, who heads the Financial Markets Operations Department at Russian Standard Bank, outlined the scenario. He noted that exporters preparing for tax obligations act as a stabilizing force for the ruble, while the arrival of the peak tourist season typically lifts demand for foreign currencies, which can cap any rapid strengthening of the ruble.
“In a shallow market right before the New Year, large, drill-down transactions can move the market more than usual,” Tymoshenko explained. “Overall, the ruble is expected to hover around the 90 rubles per dollar mark, even as it experiences short-term swings.”
He observed that a shift in oil price dynamics had been accompanied by changes in the broader cost structure for hydrocarbons, contributing to the ruble’s volatility during the period under review.
On the currency front, the euro moved to the upper eighty-five-cent mark on a morning session, trading above the 102 ruble level on the Moscow Exchange. Market reports noted that this level had not been broadly tested since late October, with liquidity and price action reflecting mixed expectations among market participants.
In intraday snapshots, the euro briefly touched 102.11 rubles, before edging back to 101.99 rubles within minutes. The dollar also showed a modest uptick, hovering near 92.07 rubles, while the yuan held around 12,841 rubles, signaling a broad, cross-currency response to global risk sentiment and domestic cash flows.
Earlier commentary from analysts had warned of potential weakness in the ruble during the second quarter, highlighting the sensitivity of the currency to external factors, including energy prices, global demand drivers, and regional financial flows. Market watchers continue to monitor shifts in external balances, tax-related activity, and seasonal trade patterns as the year closes, with liquidity conditions and central bank signals playing a pivotal role in the near-term trajectory.