Andrey Maslov, an analyst at FG Finam, notes that the prevailing exchange rate between the ruble and the U.S. dollar already creates real headwinds for the Russian economy. When export earnings are converted into rubles, budget revenues can be squeezed, and if the dollar remains priced around 60 rubles, the national budget could come under strain. This view comes as part of ongoing market commentary on currency dynamics and fiscal resilience.
Even with a noticeable decline, Russian exports continue to outpace imports, providing meaningful support to the ruble and helping cushion the economy against volatility. Such a trade balance acts as a stabilizing factor amid movements in pairwise currency values and policy shifts.
Maslov emphasizes that reaching the psychological threshold of 60 rubles per dollar remains unlikely in the near term, and perhaps for an extended period. In his assessment, the current budget framework would be exposed to risk if the ruble weakened further, whereas an approximate level around 80 rubles per dollar is viewed as a more favorable target for fiscal planning, aligning with certain central bank objectives.
Earlier reports indicated the euro had fallen to around 66 rubles, marking the first time since mid-2017 that it traded at such a level. The currency movement reflects broader shifts in European markets and the spillover effects of global risk sentiment on regional exchange rates.
Before this drop, the euro had also moved below 69 rubles on certain trading days. As of May 12 at 10:55 Moscow time, the euro stood at 68.99 rubles after a 2.14% decline, underscoring ongoing volatility in the currency pair and the sensitivity of cross-rates to policy headlines and economic data releases.
According to Bloomberg, the ruble strengthened against the U.S. dollar, ranking among the best performers among the world’s major currencies during the period observed. Analysts point to measures aimed at containing capital outflows and solidifying monetary control as contributing factors. Authorities tightened restrictions around foreign currency circulation following the onset of the special military operation in Ukraine, a move designed to stabilize the financial system and limit abrupt capital shifts.