The government and the Central Bank are prepared to mobilize every available instrument to defend the ruble from further weakening, according to MK experts. They suggest that, in the event of a rapid drop in the national currency’s value, authorities could raise the key interest rate, implement temporary administrative restraints, and employ verbal interventions to steer expectations and market behavior.
FA Capital analyst Mark Goikhman emphasised that a critical boundary exists at around 100 rubles per dollar. This level marks the point beyond which the regulator is unlikely to permit further depreciation of the exchange rate.
He noted that this implied turning point was effectively established in the summer and autumn of this year. When the dollar breached the 100-rubles threshold, authorities reacted forcefully, signaling a readiness to act to stabilize the situation.
Milking the scenario for policy insight, if external factors push the dollar to 100 rubles or more, government intervention remains possible. Yet, it is expected that such steps would constitute an adjustment rather than the imposition of new curbs on the foreign exchange market that go beyond existing measures, according to Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Earlier remarks from Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina indicated that introducing additional foreign exchange restrictions would raise costs for the business sector. At the same time, current measures requiring exporters to sell part of their earnings on the FX market already provide a mechanism to influence the exchange rate without broadening restrictions.
Looking forward, the analyst predicts that by year’s end the ruble may fluctuate within a band roughly between 88 and 93 rubles per dollar, and between 96 and 101 rubles per euro. He argues that the factors shaping the currency’s trajectory are likely to offset one another to some extent, leaving volatility within a predictable corridor.
There is also a broader context guiding expectations about de-dollarization and policy routes. Analysts have discussed potential contributions from reforms and market adjustments that could gradually reduce dependence on the U.S. currency, though specifics remain a subject of debate among experts and policymakers alike.
In summary, observers expect the authorities to keep a close watch on the FX market, ready to deploy a combination of rate policy, administrative measures, and careful communication as needed. The overarching aim is to maintain financial stability while minimizing disruption for businesses and households during periods of exchange-rate stress, all within the framework of existing monetary controls and macroprudential tools.
Overall, the narrative from market watchers emphasizes vigilance and flexibility. The ruble’s path is expected to be influenced by a balance of internal policy levers and external economic developments, with the central bank and government prepared to respond to maintain orderly conditions in the currency markets.