Financial analysts in North America and beyond have varied outlooks for the ruble in March 2024, with some predicting a rebound against the dollar while others anticipate additional pressure. An expert survey conducted by RBC highlighted this split among specialists, underscoring how market sentiment can hinge on shifting macro forces and policy signals.
By the close of February, the ruble’s value against the dollar moved higher, with the USD/RUB rising by around 1.26 percent to approximately 91.15 rubles per dollar, while the euro strengthened to about 98.61 rubles. The market had been jittery, in part because sanctions chatter created a sense of anxiety in late February. Yet, the actual constraints imposed by policymakers proved milder than many investors had feared, contributing to a more tempered price action in the currency market. This kind of dynamic—where expectations of strict measures collide with measured responses—illustrates the delicate balance currency traders seek between geopolitical risks and domestic policy signals (Source: RBC survey).
Several prominent institutions issued forecasts that suggested a potential strengthening of the ruble in March. SberСIB projected a rate of roughly 87 to 88 rubles per dollar, while VTB My Investments offered a broader lower bound around 87 to 92.5 rubles per dollar. BCS Forex pointed to a range around 90 to 91 rubles per dollar. These projections reflect a shared view that domestic policy tools and fiscal actions could lend support to the currency in the near term, even as global risk factors remain in play (Source: RBC survey).
Analysts identified a constellation of domestic catalysts likely to sustain the ruble in March. The mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters was cited as a direct supportive mechanism, complemented by ongoing operations in the open market conducted by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and by the Bank of Russia itself. The tax period tends to strengthen currency demand and liquidity dynamics, while domestic demand for foreign exchange can influence near-term price movements. Taken together, these factors create a framework in which the ruble could find and maintain incremental strength, even if gains are modest and susceptible to external shocks (Source: RBC survey).
Other market participants warned of possible depreciation scenarios. Some analysts suggested that the ruble could drift toward the 91 to 95 ruble per dollar zone, representing a temporary softening before any longer-term recalibration. The prospect of further softness often hinges on how sanction-related narratives evolve and how resilient external demand remains for Russian assets and commodities. In contrast, another subset of experts argued that the currency could keep trading within a broad corridor of 90 to 95 rubles per dollar, reflecting a continued tug-of-war between export dynamics, policy measures, and global market liquidity (Source: RBC survey).
Earlier remarks from central authorities have also influenced sentiment. Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, noted that the ruble exchange rate does not rest on artificial supports, a statement that traders interpret as a signal of policy patience and a willingness to let market forces play out within a defined corridor. This kind of clarification tends to calm short-term volatility by signaling a measured approach to currency management, even as policymakers monitor external conditions and domestic economic indicators (Source: RBC survey).
In a broader context, observers remember recent developments at the Bank of Russia and the ongoing discussion around asset seizures. The central bank has emphasized that asset movements and policy choices reflect a response to evolving circumstances rather than a fixed, artificial floor for the currency. Analysts in North America note that such statements can influence international perceptions, impacting capital flows and the overall risk environment for ruble-denominated instruments. The dialogue around asset safety and policy transparency remains a key reference point for investors assessing currency risk in the region (Source: RBC survey).