Experts expect only modest moves in the ruble during December, with about a 5 percent range against the dollar and euro amid a widening budget deficit. This assessment comes from Iosif Diskin, a member of the Russian Public Chamber and a Doctor of Economics, speaking on Moscow Speaks. He notes that while the budget gap may push the ruble lower and briefly lift the dollar and euro, the changes should stay within a narrow band.
Diskin explains that December is unlikely to bring sharp swings in the ruble. The domestic foreign exchange market has ample liquidity, ensuring that most participants can access the currency they need. This abundance of supply helps dampen extreme volatility, at least in the near term, even as macroeconomic pressures persist.
He adds that the pace of dollar and euro strengthening will likely be limited, partly because the Ministry of Finance has a stake in stabilizing currency movements. In his view, the central authorities are inclined to avoid accelerating depreciation or rapid appreciation, aiming for a measured and predictable exchange rate path.
Meanwhile, market observers have pointed to ongoing pressure from broader economic forces. For instance, Sovcombank’s chief analyst, Mikhail Vasiliev, has suggested that the trend of a stronger U.S. currency could persist in 2023 if the global economy sinks further into recession. In that scenario, the ruble might slip toward the 70-per-dollar level as external demand for foreign currency remains subdued and risk sentiment shifts.
Earlier, Vasiliev highlighted the potential profitability of holding dollars and euros in the near term. He referenced the relatively tight spread between major currencies, which can encourage traders to diversify and position for anticipated moves without waiting for dramatic shifts in fundamentals.
Analysts emphasize that the currency picture remains sensitive to both domestic policy actions and international economic conditions. Policymakers continue to balance fiscal discipline with the need to avoid destabilizing capital flows, while investors monitor inflation, interest rate trajectories, and global growth signals. In this environment, a cautious approach to currency risk is common among households, businesses, and financial institutions alike.