The discussion around Russia’s export controls hints at a potential strain on the ruble, with experts suggesting the currency could slip by as much as two to four rubles in a worst case scenario. This viewpoint comes from Vladimir Grigoriev, a candidate of economic sciences and a financial analyst who has shared his assessment with Lente.ru.
Projected dynamics for the ruble depend on two main drivers: the price of oil and the decisions made by the G7 regarding trade restrictions on Russia. Grigoriev notes that if a full ban on Russian goods were actually imposed, the ruble might weaken by two to four units at most, underscoring the sensitivity of the currency to sanctions risk and energy markets.
Several headwinds are cited as factors weighing on the ruble. The first is market confidence, or the lack thereof, in potential oil price gains. The second is the possibility that the G7 will move to restrict the supply of goods to Russia. Together, these pressures could raise the cost of imported goods and reduce domestic access to essential items, contributing to a slower economy and higher prices for consumers.
Grigoriev also points out that the duration of these impacts could be extended. A new approach to calculating oil revenues is expected to take effect in May and June, a change that could provide some measure of relief to the ruble and help stabilize the exchange rate as investors adjust to revised income projections for the energy sector.
On a related note, on April 20 the governor of the Central Bank of Russia reaffirmed the institution’s stance on the ruble’s exchange rate. The bank maintains a preference for a floating exchange rate and signals its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market only when financial stability is at risk. This approach reflects a balance between market-based adjustments and prudent safeguards in times of potential volatility.