The dollar rate dipped below 92 rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange for the first time since August 2, 2023, according to data from Moscow Exchanges. This movement marks a notable shift in early trading sessions and reflects the currency’s sensitivity to recent policy signals and market dynamics in Russia.
As of 9:59 Moscow time, the US dollar stood at 92 rubles, down 0.92 percent from the previous level. The currency traded with a soft tone, signaling cautious participants and traders assessing the near-term trajectory amid evolving domestic conditions and external pressures.
By 10:03 Moscow time, the dollar moderated its decline and settled around 92.15 rubles, down 0.77 percent for the moment. The move illustrates how intraday volatility can flare in either direction as market participants weigh policy expectations and macro indicators.
In the same session, the euro retreated by about 0.79 percent to 97.87 rubles, while the Chinese yuan hovered near 12.55 rubles, slipping roughly 0.71 percent. These movements underscore a broader appetite for risk assets and a tendency for the ruble and other major currencies to react to global liquidity conditions and regional developments.
Looking ahead to market commentary from late October, financier Alexander Losev suggested the ruble could face further depreciation of the dollar in response to the presidential decree aimed at selling foreign currency earnings. Losev emphasized that the forecast would hinge on Russia’s trade performance and the balance of payments, highlighting how external balances and state policy can shape currency expectations in the near term.
Additionally, Finam Financial Group analyst Alexander Potavin cautioned that it might be premature to accumulate dollars even as the ruble strengthens. He noted the possibility that the ruble could continue to appreciate against the dollar, potentially reaching the 90 to 96 ruble range by year-end, depending on macroeconomic dynamics and policy signals. His assessment reflects a cautious approach, balancing the potential for further ruble gains against the risk of renewed dollar strength amid shifting global conditions.
Earlier commentary from an investment strategist attributed the sharp strengthening of the ruble to the Central Bank’s recent moves and broader monetary policy expectations. The analysis pointed to how policy adjustments can influence currency differentials and market sentiment, contributing to short-term volatility and strategic positioning by investors both inside and outside Russia.
In this context, market participants in Canada and the United States often monitor such shifts as part of a broader assessment of emerging market currencies and the flow of capital. While the ruble’s direction is influenced by domestic policy and trade dynamics, international traders consider risk appetite, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments when evaluating potential hedges and positioning for the remainder of the year.