On March 12, trading activity on the Moscow Exchange showed the euro briefly surpassing 100 rubles. According to Kommersant reports, this marked the first breach of that level since February 28 earlier this year, signaling renewed volatility in the currency market amid shifting export dynamics and ongoing geopolitical pressures. At approximately 16:40 Moscow time, the euro slipped to 99.95 rubles, reflecting a modest gain of about 0.91 percent from the immediately preceding level, yet still above prior benchmarks. Concurrently, other major currencies also traded higher: the Chinese yuan rose to 12.74 rubles at 16:45, up roughly 1.16 percent, and the U.S. dollar reached 91.62 rubles, up about 1.1 percent. These movements collectively illustrate a broader risk-off or risk-on response, depending on the liquidity and sentiment prevailing at the time, and they highlight how currency markets can react in tandem to global developments. (Kommersant)
Analysts noted that the ruble weakened to the weekly minimum against most of the top currencies, underlining the sensitivity of the exchange rate to external and internal influences. By reviewing the session, observers could infer that export volumes, potentially impacted by sanctions and geopolitical factors, played a key role in shaping demand and supply conditions on the Moscow Exchange. In practical terms, a reduction in export earnings can reduce foreign currency inflows, widening the gap between the demand for rubles and the supply of foreign currencies, and thus exerting downward pressure on the ruble. This dynamic was described by Dmitry Babin of BCS World of Investments, a well-known market analyst quoted in financial coverage. The explanation centers on how sanctions-related shifts in export activity can alter the balance of payments, not only on a quarterly basis but in ongoing, real-time trading sessions. (Kommersant)
Further commentary from market insiders suggests that these forces do not act in isolation. They can simultaneously ease pressure on some currency pairs by reducing imbalances in the foreign exchange market, while at the same time exposing the ruble to higher volatility as currency reserves, budgetary expenditures, and capital flight pressures interact in unpredictable ways. In this context, even as the ruble experiences fluctuations, the broader environment remains influenced by public finance dynamics and ongoing capital movement. The exchange’s daily rhythm shows how macroeconomic factors and policy signals feed into short-term price discovery, creating a landscape where traders reassess risk, liquidity, and hedging strategies in response to evolving information. (Kommersant)
Looking ahead, analysts have offered a range of scenarios. Some observers, including Anatoly Trifonov of BCS Forex, have speculated about the potential level of the Central Bank interest rate around late March. The speculation reflects a typical market behavior where expectations of monetary policy actions can anchor or shift sentiment in the currency market, particularly when combined with shifting export patterns and sanctions-related stress. While opinions differ on the precise trajectory, the overarching theme remains the same: policy expectations, currency flows, and geopolitical developments will continue to intertwine, shaping the ruble’s path against major currencies in the weeks ahead. (Kommersant)