The ruble weakened by about ten percent against the dollar in June, following a one percent decline observed in May. This shift reflects higher import costs and lower export earnings, as noted in the Central Bank Financial Markets Risk Review. In the regulator’s assessment, exporters saw their foreign exchange revenue intake shrink, with the volume of FX sales dropping by twenty-two point nine percent to seven billion dollars in June. At the same time, importers increased their demand for foreign currency during June due to rising expenditures. The Central Bank also highlighted that the share of activity among large market participants grew, and this concentration appeared to influence the ruble’s exchange rate movement.
According to the review, domestic political events on June twenty‑third to twenty‑fifth had only a limited impact on the currency’s dynamics. The regulator noted these political developments did not significantly alter the trajectory of the ruble in the foreign exchange market during that period.
The regulator reported substantial currency purchases by residents, totaling four point one billion rubles across the period, with three billion rubles spent during the last week of June. Meanwhile, amid the Wagner PMC developments, residents bought six point two billion rubles of currency over the weekends. The Central Bank attributed the stabilization of the ruble to a quick and decisive response to the evolving situation. It was also noted that numerous companies accelerated the conversion of foreign currency loans into rubles as the national currency weakened in June.
In recent weeks, the ruble hit new record lows in the market. The dollar rose to about ninety‑three point five rubles in the trading session, while the euro approached one hundred two rubles. These levels underscored renewed currency volatility and the ongoing balance between imported costs, export earnings, and the actions of market participants in shaping the ruble’s value.
Looking forward, analysts and policymakers are watching how ongoing macroeconomic forces, external demand for commodities, and domestic policy decisions will interact to influence the ruble in the coming months. The central bank will likely continue to monitor liquidity conditions, the pace of FX conversions, and the behavior of large market participants to assess potential risks and to calibrate its policy stance accordingly.