what will be the rate
At the forthcoming Board of Directors meeting scheduled for Friday, the Central Bank is expected to lower the key interest rate from 11% to around 9-10% per year, a move of one to two percentage points. This projection comes from the analytical team at Sberbank SberCIB Investment Research. In the market analysis space of BCS World of Investments, a 9.5-10% range is seen as the most likely outcome. The 9.5% forecast has been confirmed by Expert RA, a rating agency. Several banks share the view that the rate will settle at 10% annually, including Gazprombank, Zenith, UBRD, Moscow Credit Bank, and Russian Standard. The College of Economics and ACRA also align with the credit institutions’ estimate.
Analysts suggest that the central bank will cut at least one percentage point, potentially reaching 10% per year. There is a strong likelihood of an immediate move to 9%. Inflation is rising slowly, savings propensity among households remains elevated, and the ruble has held close to multi-year highs against the dollar. Inflation expectations among households and businesses have steadied near last year’s levels. This context creates room for the key rate to move back toward early February levels in the near term, a development that would support the economy’s need for loan funds amid shrinking imports, according to Igor Rapokhin, senior debt market strategist at SberCIB Investment Research.
Vasily Karpunin, head of Information and Analytical Content at BCS World of Investments, perceives the 10% annual rate as the most probable outcome. He also notes that a decision to set the rate exactly at 9.5% would be largely symbolic, given the prior spike to 20% in late February.
In his view, a 9.5% rate would revert the policy to positions seen before the abrupt jump, with the central bank easing due to very low inflation expectations, weak consumer activity, and reduced lending to individuals and businesses, all while the ruble remains comparatively strong, statements from the central bank officials indicate. Over the last year, the Bank of Russia has steadily raised rates by a total of about 4.25 percentage points, peaking at 9.5% in early 2022, then jumping to 20% in response to sanctions, and subsequently easing to 11% by late spring. Market watchers note that the evolution has been uneven, with several adjustments around key dates and policy signals.
The rate cut will not affect the ruble
Theoretically, easing monetary policy can weaken the currency. Yet the ruble has strengthened against major currencies recently, with the ruble posting gains against the euro and dollar in the last week. The Moscow Exchange shared quotations around the mid 58s for the dollar and mid 60s for the euro in mid-afternoon trading. Despite expectations for a rate cut, many analysts think the ruble will not be pressured much by a move of this size, with several institutions maintaining a cautious stance on the exchange rate impact. Market commentary suggests that the rate adjustment is already priced in, and a 2 percentage point cut would not trigger a sharp reaction in the ruble or in federal bond prices, according to industry observers.
Experts note that the ruble’s value today is influenced by the balance of trade, export earnings, and import volumes. The central bank’s policy shift commonly enters market expectations, and while some scenarios point to a mild decline in the currency, others imply only a limited response depending on inflation trajectories and external factors. If policy loosening proceeds gradually, the ruble could remain relatively stable, albeit with nuanced shifts depending on global risk sentiment and domestic demand. Some analysts mention that a more decisive reduction to the 9-9.5% corridor might weigh modestly on the ruble, but not catastrophically, provided the economy maintains solid export earnings and controlled inflation. Outlooks from Zenit Bank and Russian Standard Bank highlight that after the decision, near-term dollar and euro landmarks may touch higher but stay within a managed band, with the dollar hovering around the low 60s rubles and the euro around the mid-60s to mid-60s ruble range. The prevailing consensus sees the rate move as largely anticipated and already reflected in current market prices, minimizing surprise impacts on currency behavior. Economic experts also remind that external shocks or policy missteps could alter this outlook, but the baseline scenario remains a cautious, incremental adjustment rather than a sudden, destabilizing shift. The overall tone remains measured, with attention on inflation, consumer activity, and credit flows as the key drivers of the ruble’s near-term trajectory. A steady, moderate easing is viewed as supportive of the economy while preserving currency stability amid ongoing economic adjustments.