The dollar is expected to maintain its influence over the global economy for several more years, according to Alexander Abramov, a Candidate of Economic Sciences and head of the laboratory at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation. He spoke during a meeting with the newspaper lenta.ru to share his outlook on currency dynamics and international financial stability.
Abramov argues that a significant shift in the dollar’s sway should not be anticipated in the near term. He notes that while the United States carries a growing debt burden and faces substantial repayment costs, its economy continues to show resilience and steady, if not robust, growth. This combination, in his view, sustains the dollar’s standing as a global store of value and a key benchmark for financial markets around the world. The analyst emphasizes that the dollar is still supported by deep, liquid markets, broad international use, and the credibility of U.S. institutions, which together reduce the likelihood of a rapid decline in its reserve-currency status. [attribution: lenta.ru]
In the economist’s assessment, there are no immediate, credible threats to the dollar that would threaten its primacy on the international stage. He points to continued demand from central banks, sovereign investors, and multinational corporations as reinforcing the currency’s dominant position. Economic resilience in the United States, along with ongoing trade and financial market diversification, contributes to the perception that the dollar will remain a central pillar of the global financial system for the foreseeable future. [attribution: lenta.ru]
Earlier, another expert, Denis Perepelitsa, who holds the title of Candidate of Economic Sciences and serves as Director of the Federal Center for Financial Literacy Methodology and Associate Professor at the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at GV Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, offered his own seasonal outlook. Perepelitsa and his colleagues made forecasts about the spring dynamics of the American currency. They suggested that during the spring of 2024 the dollar would trade within a range of approximately 85 to 90 rubles, reflecting expectations of local market conditions and broader macroeconomic factors that influence exchange rates. [attribution: lenta.ru]
These predictions underscore the interplay between U.S. fiscal policy, commodity prices, and inflation expectations, all of which can sway exchange rates. The discussion around oil prices, in particular, often features prominently in analyses of how the dollar interacts with the ruble and other currencies. As oil markets shift, investors monitor how such changes might feed into currency valuations, potentially widening or narrowing the band within which the dollar trades. The overall message remains that currency trajectories are shaped by a mix of debt dynamics, growth signals, and the appetite for security in uncertain times. [attribution: lenta.ru]
In summarizing the current situation, the experts stress caution about assumptions that a currency’s strength will persist without volatility. They encourage ongoing monitoring of U.S. macro data, policy signaling from the Federal Reserve, and global economic developments that could alter risk perceptions. The conversation highlights the importance of diversification in investment strategies and the value of understanding how fluctuations in the dollar can ripple through exchange rates, commodity prices, and international balance sheets. While forecasts can provide a guide, actual movements will respond to evolving conditions both in the United States and abroad. [attribution: lenta.ru]