A shift in commodity exports to foreign buyers could complicate a policy move to curb Russia’s oil output by 500,000 barrels per day each month. Between May 1 and May 17, local refineries operated at a markedly slower pace, producing about 372,000 barrels per day less than February levels, according to Bloomberg and a cited source.
Seasonal maintenance has limited crude processing at Russian refineries as May unfolds. Still, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says the decline in output has been lighter than previously anticipated. This has helped some crude remain on the market by redirecting volumes abroad, including to Asian and other international buyers, the report adds.
From May 1 to May 17, Russian refineries trimmed their average daily output to 5.34 million barrels per day, a drop of roughly 372,000 barrels per day relative to February. Yet, the same period shows that domestically unmapped volumes are increasingly being diverted to overseas markets as refineries optimize flows outside the home economy. On the whole, May has seen offshore shipments rise, with international deliveries up nearly 400,000 barrels per day versus February figures, a trend noted by industry observers.
Bloomberg’s ship-tracking data later in May indicates a continued expansion of oil shipments by sea from Russia. Over a four-week window, seaborne oil volumes approached four million barrels per day, and deliveries were about 1.2 million barrels per day higher than at the end of 2022. These movements reflect a broader shift in how Russia manages its crude exports, balancing domestic maintenance constraints with the demand dynamics of international markets.
For audiences in Canada and the United States, the implications are twofold. First, the evolving export pattern could influence global oil supply expectations and price volatility, especially as maintenance cycles and seasonal demand interact with policy targets on production. Second, the higher seaborne flow underscores how geopolitical and logistical factors shape the resilience of oil supply chains amid changing production rules. Analysts suggest that, while Russia aims to reduce domestic output in line with policy goals, market responses depend on how quickly refineries can stagger maintenance, reroute volumes, and secure alternative destinations for crude shipments. Ongoing monitoring of shipment data, refinery utilization, and monthly production metrics will be essential to understand the full impact on prices and energy markets in North America and beyond, as described by Bloomberg and corroborated by industry observers.