A deputy director at the Institute of International Energy Policy and Diplomacy, part of MGIMO under the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, notes that if Israel launches an attack on Iran’s oil facilities, crude prices could top $100 a barrel. In North American markets, such a scenario would likely echo through gasoline costs and energy reliability in Canada and the United States. The observation frames a broader warning about how geopolitical shocks translate quickly into consumer prices and policy questions, especially for economies tightly linked to global oil flows.
Iran currently ships about 1.5 million barrels per day for export, roughly half of its production. If exports were to tighten, global supply would shrink and oil benchmarks would be forced higher. In that scenario, prices could move decisively above the $100 mark, affecting financial markets and energy budgets across multiple regions, including North America.
There is also a persistent risk that Iran could threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly one fifth of the world’s oil passes. Such a disruption would squeeze global supply chains and raise trading costs, with immediate consequences for prices and shipping insurance costs on shipments.
Over the past week, oil prices swung as tensions in the Middle East intensified. A dip in prices gave way to a sharp rebound, with weekly gains approaching 9 percent, a move that ranks among the strongest for years and underscores how sensitive the market remains to geopolitical headlines.
Earlier, Brent crude also moved higher, climbing to around 78 dollars per barrel for the first time since late August, signaling renewed momentum in the broader oil complex as traders reassess risk and supply conditions.