According to the Ministry of Finance, federal budget oil and gas revenues in June reached 528.6 billion rubles, marking the lowest level since February of the current year. This is reported by Kommersant. Seasonality remains a defining feature of oil and gas income, including the irregular collection of the additional income tax. Compared with June last year, the shortfall stands at 26 percent, and total revenues for the first half of the year are down 47 percent from the same period a year earlier (the first quarter showed a 45 percent decline).
What remains more concerning is the persistent lag behind the planned base level of monthly oil and gas receipts. The Finance Ministry had set 2023 targets that included 8 trillion rubles needed to cover budget expenditures from oil and gas. This figure also ties to the budget rule: when the base volume is below target, currency is sold; when it exceeds target, reserves are bought back from the market.
In June, the base volume was forecast at 663.8 billion rubles, while the deficit reached 135.2 billion rubles. On balance, semiannual oil and gas revenues totaled 3.382 trillion rubles, against a planned minimum of 3.936 trillion rubles, generating a shortfall of 554 billion rubles.
As a result, July is not expected to involve a shift from currency sales to purchases by the Ministry of Finance to replenish the National Wealth Fund, in line with the budget rule. On Wednesday, the Ministry announced the sale of 34.9 billion rubles worth of yuan, and a further 1.7 billion rubles in transfers. The daily pace from July 7 to August 4 amounts to about 3.6 billion rubles, which is roughly half the level of the previous month.
Oil and gas revenues for the budget may rise in July if the ruble continues to weaken and Urals oil prices edge higher. The average price for a barrel of this grade was 53.3 dollars in May and 55.3 dollars in June. Taxes on oil are calculated based on the prior month’s price, while export duties lag by roughly half a month in the calculation cycle.
Kommersant notes that the newly adopted method for calculating oil taxes has yet to deliver the anticipated results.
In other news, the United States Treasury has extended sanctions against Russia.