Economist Mikhail Belyaev outlined a scenario where mortgage rates could dip in the near future, suggesting a reduction to around 10 percent might be possible under certain conditions. He Caveated that such a move would hinge on the stance of the central bank and its broader monetary strategy, and he spoke from a position of analysis rather than certainty. The observation was made during a discussion with Lentoy.ru, where he laid out the conditional nature of rate shifts and the need to weigh macroeconomic impacts carefully. Source: Lentoy.ru
The core idea emphasized by the expert is that policy decisions from the central bank would play a decisive role. If the central bank maintains a tight policy, the path to lower mortgage costs would be gradual at best. In that framework, the key rate could either rise or hold steady rather than drop quickly, reflecting a policy environment that prioritizes inflation control and financial stability. Source: Lentoy.ru
Belyaev warned that a rapid decline in interest rates could shock the economy, creating volatility rather than steady improvement. He argued that the central bank is better positioned to tolerate a slow, predictable easing—perhaps a single percentage point at a measured pace—than a sharp, abrupt move. The focus, he said, should be on gradual reductions that allow markets, borrowers, and lenders to adjust without destabilizing credit flows. Source: Lentoy.ru
Regarding the mortgage market itself, the economist noted that while lowering the rate to about 10 percent would be advantageous in some respects, it would still leave borrowing costs relatively high for many potential homeowners. The result would be continued affordability challenges for those relying on mortgages, and a stabilization of apartment prices that keeps real estate costs out of reach for a significant segment of buyers. Source: Lentoy.ru
In his broader assessment, Belyaev discussed the possibility of a special territorial mortgage approach within the country, a policy idea that could target support to specific regions. He described how regionally tailored programs might help certain markets respond more effectively to changing rate conditions and credit access. Source: Lentoy.ru
Earlier remarks from the central bank reflected ongoing debate about concessional mortgages and their role in shaping housing markets. The discussion highlighted considerations such as eligibility criteria, loan limits, and the balance between stimulating demand and maintaining financial prudence. Source: Lentoy.ru