What the Rate Cut Could Mean for Mortgage Access
Several major banks in Russia, including Moscow Credit Bank, Dom.RF, Rosbank, MTS Bank, Zenit, and Absolut Bank, are signaling an opening to lower mortgage rates in August. Representatives told socialbites.ca that these lenders plan to adjust current terms in response to the Central Bank’s upcoming policy move. The regulator is anticipated to reduce the key rate from the present 9.5 percent to a range around 8.5–9 percent at the July 22 meeting, according to prior reporting by socialbites.ca.
The industry expects a bank-led response to a potential rate cut. A source from Absolut Bank noted that the organizer may trim the key rate by half a percentage point at the next session, with a parallel decrease likely in mortgage rates. During a promotional period from July 20 to August 7, the bank reduced rates on its secondary housing program by 0.5 percentage points. This move brought the minimum rate for the bank’s own programs back into the single-digit territory, landing at 9.69 percent, according to Anton Pavlov, vice president of Absolut Bank.
Other lenders have signaled similar intentions but have not disclosed exact discount figures. MTS Bank has stated that its mortgage rates will be revised in line with the movement of the key rate. The final numbers will depend on how far the indicator falls, explained Tatyana Akramova, head of mortgage lending at MTS Bank.
A similar stance has been voiced by Absolut Bank, MTS Bank, and Sovcombank. Industry forecasts project that the weighted average mortgage rate in August could trend toward 10 percent, possibly slipping to around 9 percent by year-end.
What the Rate Cut Could Bring
Tatyana Shkolnaya, deputy director of the Institute of Tax Management and Real Estate Economics at the Higher School of Economics, commented that banks are expected to adjust mortgage rates in August. She noted that mortgage rates react quickly to changes in the key rate and that a similar pattern is likely this time around.
Vasily Karpunin, head of information and analytical content at BCS World of Investments, predicted a notable uptick in real estate demand as rates decline. He suggested that a 1 percentage point reduction could drive mortgage product demand higher by a significant margin, especially in a market with a softened floor on lending costs. Karpunin’s assessment aligns with the view of X researchers in the sector, who emphasize how sensitive demand is to shifts in borrowing costs.
Ksenia Yakushkina, director of banking ratings at Expert RA, supported the expectation of stronger loan activity. She pointed to evidence from June showing revived demand for housing loans and argued that a further rate decrease would stimulate even more loan volume. Still, she added a caveat that comfort depends on broader economic factors beyond the mortgage rate alone.
Shkolnaya also stressed that comfort is relative. She explained that the key question for borrowers remains housing needs. A mortgage is a tool, and comfort is determined by three main indicators: real income, housing prices, and the mortgage rate. In today’s landscape, many families face higher housing prices while real incomes are under pressure. In such conditions, a mortgage rate around 9–10 percent could be considered protective, given the overall affordability challenges.
GV Plekhanov University’s Tatyana Skryl, a specialist in economic theory, highlighted a notable rise in housing supply relative to the previous year, with current stock about 35 percent higher. She observed that the number of available flats surpasses current demand, which can influence how the market absorbs rate changes. The broader view from experts is that ongoing rate cuts and anticipated pent-up demand will shape the mortgage market in the months ahead. While population income declines pose a risk, the balance of factors leans toward a recovery after the earlier April–May downturn, according to these assessments.