The Ministry of Economic Development presents its updated outlook on currency movements, focusing on the ruble’s trajectory against the US dollar. The central projection envisions an average exchange rate near 76.5 rubles per dollar for the year as a baseline, with the expectation that the metric will drift higher in the medium term. In the new forecast, the ministry anticipates the year 2024 to average around 76.8 rubles per dollar, followed by approximately 77.6 rubles per dollar in 2025. These figures were outlined by Maxim Reshetnikov, head of the ministry, during remarks reported by TASS. The message emphasizes a controlled, gradual adjustment rather than abrupt shocks to the currency market.
Looking further ahead to the 2024–2026 period, the forecast sets an average rate near 78.8 rubles per dollar. The ministry notes that current conditions, including external balances and trade dynamics, support a soft nominal depreciation path for the ruble, rather than a sharp weakening. As of mid-April, the official Central Bank rates stood at approximately 81.68 rubles per dollar and about 90 rubles per euro, reflecting broader currency markets and policy settings that influence domestic pricing, imports, and competitiveness.
During a public briefing, Reshetnikov explained that the exchange rate projection for 2023 was formed under the assumption of a reduced trade deficit, aligning with a slower pace of inflow volatility. The government’s forecast for the medium term describes a measured and predictable rhythm of ruble movement, rather than sudden swings that could disrupt macroeconomic stability. This approach, the minister noted, is designed to support sustained investment, predictable financing conditions, and the resilience of the national economy in a fluctuating global context.
In his remarks, the minister also touched on inflation expectations tied to the broader economic environment. Based on the current year’s data, the ministry projects inflation to ease to around 5.3 percent, an improvement from the prior September assessment of about 5.5 percent. The revised inflation path reflects an alignment with ongoing monetary policy actions, budgetary discipline, and favorable external conditions that collectively influence consumer prices, wage growth, and the purchasing power of households. Authorities emphasize that the inflation trajectory will be monitored closely, with policy settings adjusted as needed to guard price stability while supporting durable growth objectives.