Freedom Finance Global Lead Analyst Natalya Milchakova shared with RT her view on the Brent oil price path, estimating a corridor of roughly 71 to 77 dollars per barrel. She stressed that weekly data on commercial hydrocarbon reserves matter greatly for the market, with higher readings giving traders more reasons to expect price movements upward. Milchakova pointed out that reserve data often act as a barometer for supply expectations and can influence risk premia across crude benchmarks.
She noted that Saudi Arabia has raised its official selling prices for crude to customers, a move she sees as a key driver behind recent price gains. Milchakova added that the market will stay focused on the upcoming OPEC monthly report, which could set the tone for the next moves in oil prices. According to her analysis, oil could continue to rise unless OPEC’s analysts adjust their global oil demand forecast for 2024 higher, or they revise down their outlook for this year, which would soften the near-term outlook for Brent.
Looking ahead, Milchakova warned that if the global demand forecast is lowered, Brent could retreat toward the 70 to 72 dollar range per barrel, indicating a potential price floor if demand expectations weaken. Her assessment reflects how a shift in demand projections can quickly alter sentiment in the oil market and influence trading strategies across asset classes.
In another data point from early July, she observed that Russian oil refineries increased crude throughput by about 5 percent in June, reaching roughly 750,000 tons per day. This uptick signals continued operational resilience in the Russian refining sector, contributing to a nuanced picture of supply-side dynamics in a time of diverse regional trends.
Milchakova also recalled that Russia had already surpassed spring indicators for its oil refining activity, underscoring a sustained level of throughput that can affect global supply balance. Taken together, these signals from reserve data, production and refinery utilization, and policy shifts illuminate how a constellation of factors can steer the Brent complex in the near term. The interview underscores that price trajectories depend on both demand forecasts and the appetite of major producers to adjust pricing strategies and output, a balance that markets continually reassess.