The limited easing of the ruble comes from a combination of tight domestic liquidity, a slide in oil prices, and ongoing hurdles in moving funds from non-friendly nations into Russia. According to Sergei Suverov, an investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company, these factors create a persistent drag on the currency and amplify volatility in the domestic market.
The scarcity of foreign currency within Russia is tied to the current ban on exporting refined fuels. Petroleum products contribute a substantial portion of export revenue for oil producers, estimated at roughly 30 percent. Suverov explained that a drop in the Brent crude benchmark, which slipped from around $95 a barrel to just under $84, further weakens ruble support by reducing potential foreign exchange inflows tied to oil earnings.
According to Suverov, the ruble typically gains strength when oil stays above the $80 per barrel level, yet the currency is under pressure as foreign currency receipts are constrained by restrictions on capital flows from unfriendly jurisdictions. He noted that last summer’s exchange rate of about 50 rubles per dollar looked like a distortion caused by sharp limits on imports and tightened capital controls. In response, the timing and effectiveness of policy measures from Russia’s Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are seen as crucial in curbing excessive market volatility and restoring smoother currency dynamics.
On Friday morning, the ruble faced renewed testing as the dollar reached the 101 ruble mark on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since mid-August, with the euro also surpassing 106 rubles. By 08:15 local time, the dollar traded near 101.5 rubles, while the euro hovered around 106.9 rubles, underscoring a broader trend of currency weakness amid shifting liquidity conditions and energy-market developments.
Further analysis from Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, highlighted that the export ban on gasoline and diesel fuels reduces foreign exchange earnings and the supply of foreign currency, thereby exerting additional downward pressure on the ruble. In recent policy moves, the government granted limited permission for some diesel exports, a decision that could gradually ease the currency constraint while reflecting the delicate balance between maintaining domestic energy needs and sustaining export revenues.
Industry observers like Dzhioev have also weighed in, suggesting that the ruble could see attempts at strengthening to around ₽85 per dollar under certain favorable conditions, though such shifts would depend on sustained improvements in trade flows and oil market stability. Taken together, these insights illustrate a complex interplay between commodity markets, regulatory controls, and global financial conditions shaping the ruble’s trajectory in the near term.