The Central Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance may impose limits on large foreign currency purchases from the domestic market as part of efforts to acquire stakes in foreign firms exiting Russia. The measure would target substantial buys of dollars and euros that could trigger ruble fluctuations amid limited liquidity in the currency market.
The newspaper obtained confirmation from Ivan Chebeskov, who heads the fiscal policy department at the Ministry of Finance. He said the mechanism would be flexible and not tied to a fixed amount. Chebeskov recalled that previous steps restricted foreign currency purchases during large transactions to stabilize the market when needed.
“When considering actions under the subcommittee framework, which allows non-residents to divest from Russian assets, market conditions in the foreign exchange market are always taken into account for decision-making, including stock transactions,” Chebeskov stated. .
Shell deal and ruble vulnerability
In early April 2023, both the US dollar and the euro rose above 81.79 rubles, reaching the highest points seen since April 2022, with the dollar near 90.2 rubles. Analysts linked the ruble’s weakness to NOVATEK’s acquisition of Shell’s stake in the Sakhalin-2 project for roughly 100 billion rubles. Bloomberg also noted the deal’s impact on the Russian currency market.
On April 12, Kremlin governor Elvira Nabiullina attributed the market strain to shrinking export volumes and lower oil prices. She argued there was no need to push foreign exchange earnings back into the economy or impose additional restrictions. Nabiullina emphasized that the central bank seeks a steadier FX market but rejects the idea of an administrative peg, warning that such measures can provoke sharp devaluations and financial crises. Stabilizing the exchange rate should be supported by a prudent budget rule and low inflation.
On April 10, Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin explained that the ruble’s drop against major currencies reflected export earnings being near a trough. He expected a recovery as export revenue starts to rebound, noting that revenue follows sales volume and price with a delay of about three months after shipments are made.
“Observers likely overstate the immediate impact of this factor,” Zabotkin added.
Meanwhile, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev said deals like Shell’s exit from Russian assets should not automatically push the ruble lower. He noted that the government imposes strict limits on FX movements for companies, and vowed that any violations would be scrutinized by the Bank of Russia with potential consequences.
“Honestly, I’m skeptical about the idea that the Shell deal alone drives the ruble,” Moiseev remarked.
On April 6, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attributed the ruble’s movement to the balance of foreign exchange inflows and outflows. He argued that rising energy prices would attract more foreign currency and help strengthen the ruble over time.
Earlier, on April 4, Kommersant reported that the Russian firm NOVATEK had secured presidential approval to access and repatriate the full 94.8 billion rubles tied to Shell’s Sakhalin-2 stake. The Kremlin and Shell did not comment on the transaction. Peskov, the president’s press secretary, declined to discuss business matters publicly.
Sakhalin-2 overview
Sakhalin-2 is a project for developing the Piltun-Astokhskoye and Lunskoye fields on the Sakhalin shelf, operated under a production sharing agreement since 1994. Initially, the project was owned by Gazprom (50%), Mitsui (12.5%), Mitsubishi (10%), and Shell (27.5%). In 2022, the operator’s net income reached about $4 billion on revenue of roughly $9.6 billion, underscoring the scale of the venture and its impact on regional energy economics.