In January, new housing starts in Russia fell compared with the same month last year, a development noted by analysts and reported by RIA News citing data from Dom.RF. The slowdown reflects a cautious stance among developers after a burst of activity toward the end of the previous year. In January, 2.3 million square meters of new housing were released to the market, a figure that marks the weakest start to a year since January 2021 when the market opened with about 1.3 million square meters. This drop signals a cooling after a record-setting December, suggesting that January served as a pause point for builders and buyers alike.
Experts point out that the January lull follows a peak in project launches at the end of 2023. In December, developers brought a robust 6.5 million square meters of residential space to the market. That surge created a high watermark for new supply, and the January figures illustrate the normal kind of market consolidation that often follows a rapid buildup. The broader picture remains favorable for construction, with the total volume of housing under construction staying high at 105.1 million square meters, indicating a large pipeline of ongoing projects across the country. Moscow continues to be the leading city for new project launches, contributing around 390 thousand square meters in January, underscoring its continued role as a primary driver of market activity.
Within the secondary market, buyers are seeing a different dynamic. Reports from Moscow indicate a growing willingness among sellers to negotiate prices on resale properties, with about 20% of sellers ready to make concessions to close deals faster. This shift reflects a more buyer-friendly mood in the capital, where price flexibility is increasingly turning into a practical tool for accelerating settlements in a competitive market.
Meanwhile, policy discussions surrounding the housing market continue to surface in the public sphere. Lawmakers have floated ideas to lower mortgage rates as a measure to support housing demand and stabilize the market, a move that could influence affordability and drive activity in the coming months. The interplay between new supply, resale dynamics, and potential fiscal or monetary measures is shaping a complex landscape for developers, investors, and potential homeowners alike.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast a pattern where the January slowdown may be followed by a more measured pace of launches in the early months of the year, with the market adapting to the evolving mix of demand, financing conditions, and regulatory signals. The December spike has left a lingering impression of robust capacity, and many observers expect a gradual rebalancing as new projects progress through construction stages and enter the market in stages rather than in a single burst.