Recent data show Iran’s crude shipments have regained momentum to levels not seen since mid-2022, signaling a resumed flow of oil to international markets. Estimates from the analytics firm Kpler and coverage by Reuters indicate Tehran shipped roughly 1.23 million barrels per day to overseas buyers in November. That pace comes close to the 1.27 million bpd recorded in April 2019 and represents the strongest monthly level since August 2022. Kpler also suggests a modest pullback in December, with exports averaging around 1.0 million barrels per day. These figures underscore Iran’s ongoing effort to sustain overseas sales despite a constrained operating environment and restricted access to many traditional markets. Official export figures are not published by Tehran, making independent estimates essential for understanding market movements. Analysts note that the current trajectory reflects a partial recovery from the steep declines triggered by intensified U.S. sanctions in 2018 and points to a broader stabilization of shipments over recent quarters, even as sanctions and market volatility continue to shape the global oil landscape.
Independent assessments from SVB International, an energy sector advisory, place Iran’s crude exports at about 1.095 million bpd in November, rising to around 1.137 million bpd in December. These figures illustrate Tehran’s continued push to maintain overseas sales while navigating limited access to key markets. The lack of official Iran oil export data makes external estimates important for tracking shifts in supply and pricing. Analysts observe that the current export path signals a measured recovery from the sharp drop following the 2018 sanctions regime, with shipments showing resilience across several recent quarters as buyers adjust to evolving geopolitical risks and sanctions frameworks. This dynamic scenario keeps the global oil market attentive to sanctions policy, regional demand, and the pace of supply changes across the Middle East and beyond.
Reporting in mid-January from The Wall Street Journal, based on informed sources, described Tehran’s approach to cheaper oil exports directed at Syria. The report suggested a policy move that effectively doubles the price of oil reaching Damascus. This development illustrates how sanctions, pricing strategies, and regional dynamics can influence wider pricing trends and supply expectations. Observers emphasize that these shifts have the potential to ripple through neighboring markets, affecting regional supply considerations and market sentiment as sanctions remain a central factor in how oil moves within the region. In Canada and the United States, industry analysts monitor such policy moves closely, given the potential implications for regional pricing, refining margins, and energy security.|*Attribution: The Wall Street Journal via informants.*