Forecasts indicate a slight contraction in the global grain harvest for the current agricultural year, with an expected decline of about 1.7 percent, totaling roughly 2.8 billion tonnes. This projection comes from reports cited by TASS and is anchored in analyses conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The outlook reflects a mix of regional challenges and climate-related hurdles that are weighing on overall production levels across major grain categories and geographical regions.
Constructive factors balance these declines in some sectors. Specifically, experts highlight that difficulties in corn yields in Argentina and disruptions to rice production in China have contributed to the downward trajectory. These remarks were shared by Igor Shpakov, an adviser associated with the FAO office responsible for relations with the Russian Federation, during discussions at the Winter Grain Conference. His assessment points to weather patterns, input costs, and farm-level conditions as key drag factors influencing crop performance in these two important producing countries.
In contrast, the FAO’s global picture for wheat appears more favorable. The organization projects a year-on-year increase in world wheat production of about 2.02 percent, bringing the total to around 794 million tonnes. FAO representatives emphasized that these numbers are poised to set new records, surpassing the previous year by approximately 16 million tonnes. The record-setting potential underscores wheat’s role as a stabilizing factor within the broader grain market, supported by favorable growing conditions in several major producing regions and improved yields in others, despite ongoing weather-related uncertainties faced by some countries.
Looking at Ukraine, a notable shift is anticipated in the grain harvest trajectory. By 2023, estimates suggest a potential reduction in Ukraine’s total grain output by as much as 34 percent. Analysts note that while domestic supply could still satisfy local demand, the export outlook appears markedly weaker, with projections indicating a possible 3- to 4-fold decrease in shipments to international markets. This scenario reflects internal production constraints, ongoing regional challenges, and shifting trade dynamics that influence the country’s role in global grain trade and its implications for neighboring markets and global supply chains.