The global economy is projected to run at a slower sustainable pace through the coming decade. The World Bank’s latest assessment points to a reduction in the long‑term growth rate that can occur without triggering higher inflation, with projections suggesting this rate will dip to a multi‑year low by 2030. This is the central conclusion highlighted by the World Bank’s analysis.
Forecasts from the agency indicate a downward shift in the economy’s “speed limit” — the maximum sustainable growth rate that avoids persistent inflation. The report emphasizes that over the next several years, the global economy is expected to experience a notable slowdown, culminating in a lower potential growth trajectory by 2030. These conclusions reflect a broader pattern of shifting dynamics that have restrained the progress seen in recent decades.
The document underscores that most drivers of sustained global prosperity have weakened since the 1990s. Factors such as productivity gains, investment momentum, and favorable external conditions have softened, contributing to the revised outlook. As a result, the World Bank describes a scenario where the global economy may endure a period of slower expansion, sometimes described in policy circles as a lost decade in terms of potential growth performance.
In the forecast period from 2022 to 2030, the estimate for average potential growth per year is adjusted downward. The report projects that the rate could fall by roughly one‑third relative to the pace observed in the first decade of this century, landing around 2.2 percent annually. This shift has implications for employment, living standards, and fiscal space across countries as governments recalibrate macroeconomic strategies to sustain stability and resilience. The discussion reflects careful balance and cautious optimism about the paths available to policymakers to support growth while keeping inflation in check, as noted in the World Bank’s briefing and corroborated by related analyses from major institutions. Data cited in the report point to a convergence of headwinds that warrant focused, evidence‑based policy responses for the foreseeable future.
Earlier reporting from Reuters and other outlets indicated that estimates of the cost to rebuild Ukraine reach substantial figures. The World Bank, together with the European Commission and regional officials, cited a broader reconstruction requirement, illustrating how geopolitical and regional challenges can interact with global growth dynamics. The $411 billion figure has been referenced as a benchmark for planning and international cooperation aimed at rebuilding infrastructure, institutions, and economic capacity in the affected areas. The emphasis remains on mobilizing resources, coordinating efforts, and ensuring that recovery supports long‑term resilience and inclusive growth across affected communities. Attribution to the World Bank and participating institutions is noted for context and clarity about the sources of these estimates.