Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director at Astra Asset Management, forecast a temporary rise in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble by about 1 to 2 rubles on March 21. The expected movement stems from three month settlements in foreign exchange futures contracts, and this view was reported by RBC.
Polevoy explained that the end of the pegging period for the ruble against the dollar tends to trigger a flurry of market activity. During this settlement window, a variety of trades occur that can influence the ruble’s value. Fixing, in this context, refers to establishing the generally accepted price for a financial asset to close out certain futures and options positions. The rate used for this purpose is determined in accordance with the Mobile Switchboard framework, based on transactions analyzed between 12:15 and 12:30.
Earlier, another analyst, Dmitry Babin, described a heightened level of pressure on the dollar, noting that it hovered above the 92 ruble mark due to a dip in Russian exports. The expert observed that over the past two years the number of investors and speculators participating in the Russian foreign exchange market has decreased sharply. This reduction follows shifts in both external and internal factors that historically influenced ruble pricing.
Looking further ahead, a veteran market participant provided an outlook for the dollar and euro prices through the remainder of the week, highlighting ongoing uncertainty and the potential for volatility driven by trade data, commodity prices, and macroeconomic signals.