In the opening days of January 2024, analysts anticipated the ruble to trade within a broad range, roughly 88.5 to 91.5 rubles per dollar. This projection was shared with socialbites.ca by Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, who is known for studying currency flows and macroeconomic indicators in times of market uncertainty.
Bakhtin noted that January tends to be a challenging month for the ruble. He explained that economic activity slows markedly in the first ten days of the year. There are relatively few major events or news catalysts, and liquidity in the foreign exchange market tends to shrink, which can limit the magnitude of rapid moves. He cautioned that, even during the holiday period, large shifts are unlikely unless unforeseen geopolitical shocks arise. He cited January 2022 as a reminder of how political developments can influence sentiment and trigger painful, abrupt moves in the currency markets.
The strategist also pointed out that the pullback in oil prices during the November–December window had not yet fully translated into a corresponding decrease in foreign exchange earnings entering the domestic market. He suggested that the true market response could manifest in January as traders reassess oil earnings, energy export dynamics, and the broader macro backdrop.
As for energy benchmarks, Brent crude, the widely used North Sea reference, remained near the mid-70s to low-80s per barrel at the start of 2023, after a period of volatility. There were times when prices rose toward the high 80s or even approached 90 dollars, underscoring the sensitivity of the ruble to energy markets and global demand conditions. This backdrop has direct implications for Russia’s trade income and, consequently, the currency’s trajectory in the near term.
Bakhtin emphasized that regulatory measures were likely to support the ruble in the period ahead. One key factor is the temporary coercion of a portion of foreign exchange earnings by Russian exporters, which can reduce supply pressure in the currency market. A second factor is the tightening stance of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, whose policy signals suggest that the ruble could feel additional effects in the January-to-March window. He also anticipated that the central bank’s own foreign exchange operations would rise notably in the first half of 2024, contributing to greater discipline in the FX market.
From January onward, the daily volume of foreign exchange sales was projected to rise significantly, with estimates ranging from 0.7 billion rubles to as high as 11.8 billion rubles. Such a broad range reflects the uncertainties that still accompany the domestic economy, trade flows, and policy actions. If realized, this expansion in sales activity could help curb ruble depreciation and dampen volatility in currency markets, offering a measure of stability for importers, exporters, and investors alike.
By the close of the most recent Moscow Stock Exchange session this year, the dollar traded near 90.36 rubles, while the euro hovered around 99.62 rubles. In 2023, the dollar rose by roughly 30 percent, and the euro advanced by about 34 percent, underscoring a tough environment for currency buyers and sellers alike. Market participants closely watched policy shifts and external risks as they formed expectations for the months ahead.
Historically, the regulator moved to adjust the official exchange rate frame to reflect evolving market conditions. In this instance, the central bank extended its formal window for updating the official dollar rate, signaling a readiness to respond to incoming data and policy developments. Traders treated these administrative decisions as part of a broader toolkit aimed at preserving price stability and orderly conduct in the currency market.