The dollar exchange rate is projected to sit around 97 to 99 rubles in the coming week. This outlook was shared with socialbites.ca by Anatoly Trifonov, a forex analyst at BCS, and reflects a careful assessment of how Russia’s currency might move in the near term.
Trifonov notes that the ruble could gain strength if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation acts decisively with a notable rise in the policy rate on September 15 and if the central bank increases its foreign exchange sales. He cautions, however, that a sharp rate increase by the Bank of Russia is not his baseline expectation, given the current macroeconomic balance and the need to avoid sudden gyrations in the currency market.
He explained that the central bank has chosen to ramp up the volume of interventions in response to fears of a rapid escalation in demand for foreign currency. If demand for dollars and euros still outpaces the regulator’s forecasts, the impact of such interventions could prove negative for the ruble. Nevertheless, Trifonov says that the factors underpinning the ruble are broadly balanced at the moment. Therefore, his central projection remains that the dollar will trade within the 97-99 ruble band next week, barring unexpected shocks.
Looking further ahead, Trifonov suggests that the ruble could strengthen against the euro if the gap between European and American exchange rates continues to widen in favor of the dollar. Yet, he also notes that tight foreign currency liquidity on the market creates a backdrop for heightened short‑term volatility. This volatility could push the ruble outside the established trading corridor should external pressures intensify or if market participants adjust expectations abruptly.
From a broader perspective, the analyst anticipates that the Russian currency may appreciate later in the year if the central bank maintains a restrictive monetary stance while oil prices remain firm or rise. In recent sessions, market dynamics have reflected the interplay between monetary policy signals, commodity revenue expectations, and the central bank’s readiness to intervene to stabilize liquidity and prevent runaway moves in the exchange rate.
During the trading session on Friday, the Moscow Stock Exchange closed with the dollar at 97.78 rubles, down 47 kopecks from the previous close. Earlier in the week, on September 6, the central bank announced a plan to markedly increase foreign exchange sales in the coming period, aiming to run roughly 21.4 billion rubles in daily sales from September 14 to 22, up from 2.3 billion rubles. This surge in intervention activity underscores the regulator’s intent to manage demand pressures and maintain orderly market functioning as global and domestic factors evolve.
Analysts emphasize that while near‑term stability appears plausible, the ruble remains sensitive to shifts in both policy signaling and external commodity markets. Trifonov’s outlook encapsulates a cautious optimism: a trading range that remains intact provided policy moves are calibrated and market expectations adapt smoothly to evolving fundamentals. The overall assessment highlights a currency landscape characterized by disciplined intervention, vigilant liquidity management, and the persistent influence of energy prices on domestic financial conditions.
In summation, Trifonov continues to forecast a relatively narrow band for the dollar against the ruble in the immediate horizon, with the possibility of modest strengthening should the central bank tilt policy toward tighter liquidity controls and oil markets support stronger receipts. The conversation around the ruble remains anchored in how the central bank balances intervention with policy rate settings, how foreign currency liquidity shifts, and how traders anticipate the trajectory of energy prices in the months ahead. This framework explains why the dollar might hover near 97-99 rubles next week, while acknowledging that sudden shifts in demand or policy could re‑shape the path for the currency in the near term. The analyst’s assessment rests on observed market dynamics and the central bank’s strategic moves, as discussed with sources noted for context and accountability.
Note: the above interpretation reflects the expert commentary and market commentary surrounding the ruble and does not constitute financial advice. © Attribution follows the original reporting source as cited in the discussion with the analyst.