In April, the ruble is expected to receive support from the central bank’s continued tight monetary stance and a backdrop of higher oil prices. This view was echoed to socialbites.ca by the PSB Criminal Code, which outlined the factors shaping the currency’s trajectory for the near term.
According to Nikolai Ryaskov, who serves as the general director for investments, the dominant driver behind any further sizable swings in the ruble’s value could be the government’s move to either extend or suspend the policy that requires exporters to sell a portion of their foreign exchange earnings in April. This policy, often a focal point for traders, is seen as a lever that can amplify or dampen exchange-rate volatility depending on how it is implemented in the upcoming month.
The Criminal Code reiterated that the potential extension or suspension of the compulsory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters in April stands as a principal factor that could drive notable fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.
Earlier, a stock market expert from BCS World of Investments, Dmitry Babin, suggested that once the tax period in Russia concludes on March 28, the dollar could trade in the vicinity of 93 to 93.5 rubles. A financier also forecast a softening of the ruble following the March 28 tax deadline, noting that shifts in fiscal timing often influence short-term currency dynamics as market participants reassess risk and liquidity conditions in the domestic economy.
There was also commentary from a former financier highlighting a rise in demand for foreign currency within Russia, a signal that traders monitor closely as they gauge the balance between capital needs, import activity, and the central bank’s policy stance. This dynamic can contribute to a more pronounced performance gap between official benchmarks and market expectations, especially in the weeks surrounding key fiscal milestones.