The euro dipped below 99 rubles on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since March 12, according to trading data. The day’s trough reached 98.98 rubles, but by 10:50 Moscow time the single European currency was edging higher, trading at 99.54 rubles as buyers and sellers found a tentative balance amid market jitters.
Meanwhile, the dollar stood at 92.65 rubles and the yuan traded around 12.74 rubles, painting a round early picture of a currency market in flux as investors weighed global cues against Russia’s domestic policy signals.
Market observers point to several pillars supporting the ruble at the moment. High oil prices offer a measure of relief, while the Central Bank of Russia maintains a relatively tight monetary stance. The culmination of the tax period also plays a role, reducing liquidity strains and supporting financial stability, according to Maxim Fedosov, a portfolio manager with Pervaya Management Company, who notes the interplay of Brent-linked energy revenue and policy posture in shaping the currency’s course this week.
Earlier, Dmitry Babin, a stock market expert with BCS World of Investments, remarked that Russians continue to show steady demand for dollars, euros, and yuan, reflecting a preference for holding cash and foreign currency amid ongoing economic uncertainties and capital flow considerations. The comment underscores how currency markets respond to risk sentiment and liquidity preferences in the domestic environment.
On the global front, the Ukrainian hryvnia appeared among the weaker performers, ranking seventh in the world by the time of the latest assessments. In March the hryvnia lost a notable portion of its value against the dollar, illustrating the broader vulnerability of regional currencies to geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks. These dynamics contribute to a cautious mood among traders and commentators as they watch for policy cues and external demand signals.
Looking ahead, market analysts have floated a fresh forecast range for the ruble in April, outlining scenarios under varying oil trajectories and policy developments. Traders will be watching oil prices, fiscal measures, and potential shifts in monetary guidance for clues about the ruble’s next move. The evolving balance between energy markets, domestic policy, and global risk appetite will likely continue to drive volatility, with the ruble reacting to both headline news and the subtle undercurrents of capital flows across asset classes. This evolving backdrop keeps investors attentive to new data, central bank communications, and the evolving energy-price environment that continues to shape currency performance in the region.